Mamata steamrolls all her opponents

The year-long blizzard of propaganda could not shrivel her prospects. Disturbing TV visuals of her ministers taking bribe, collapse of a Kolkata flyover killing over 20 people prior to the election had little impact on the results in West Bengal as Mamata Banerjee stormed back to power for a second consecutive term, leaving many political pundits baffled and fumbling for words to explain her unbelievably massive victory both in terms of seats and vote share.

How can one explain Mamata’s triumph? Is the mandate a ‘yes’ in favour of her government’s development activities or a ‘no’ to a hastily conjured alliance of two ideologically opposed partners, the Left and the Congress? The story contains both.       

The ‘no’ factor
Trouble was brewing within the Left-Congress alliance since its inception. Many CPM leaders, from the Polit Bureau to the district committees, were ideologically opposed to the idea of joining hands with the Congress. It is no longer a secret now that many Left voters chose NOTA (None Of The Above) instead of an alliance candidate. Similarly, a large number of Congress supporters refused to vote for Left candidates, they voted for the Trinamool instead. In short, neither the arithmetic nor the chemistry worked for the alliance.

The Left-Congress partnership emerged too late, barely two months before the polls, giving it too little time to bloom. Also, after repeated electoral debacles, first in the 2011 Assembly polls and then in the municipal and Lok Sabha elections, the powerful organisation of the Left, which won them so many elections in the past, collapsed completely. So, while Trinamool workers were busy campaigning in the villages, the Left leaders had little option but to use air-conditioned studios of news channels as their primary vehicles of campaign.  

The silent voters, whose votes finally determine the outcome of every election, did not trust the alliance. Many believed the Left-Congress bonhomie would not last long even if the alliance came to power. As a result, the government would fall, requiring another round of elections. These silent voters chose stability and voted for the Trinamool.

 The Muslim community influenced electoral outcome in at least 80 of the 294 seats by supporting the Trinamool. The Left could be credited for preventing communal riots, but they virtually did nothing for the Muslims during their 30-year rule. True, Mamata promised much and delivered little, but unlike the Left, she delivered something, felt the Muslims, particularly those in the rural areas.  

Finally, the Left-Congress leaders’ expectations on the possible swing in the BJP’s vote share in their favour went horribly wrong. True to their calculations, the BJP’s vote share came down from 17% to 10%, but the swing entirely favoured the Trinamool.

The ‘yes’ factor
Strange though it may sound, but many of the accusations against Mamata in fact helped her. The Trinamool was accused of running a “syndicate raj” in West Bengal. True, the syndicates fleece realtors, supply low-grade building materials at prices much higher than the market rates, but syndicate members, mostly men in their 20s and 30s, have no other source of livelihood. 

There are at least 30,000 syndicate members in the Rajarhat-New Town area alone, and the Left-Congress alliance’s promise of action against syndicates if they came to power worried these young men and they worked body and soul to ensure a Trinamool victory. Syndicates exist in all urban areas in Bengal and all of them worked for the Trinamool. Similarly, the Opposition’s charge that the government was wasting tax payers’ money to give donations to the local clubs alienated the club members, who doggedly worked to ensure Mamata’s victory.

On the other hand, in spite of the financial constraints and the resulting shoe-string budget, Mamata’s government successfully implemented a slew of development projects, particularly in the rural and semi-urban areas. In spite of repeated incidents of violence against women, Mamata managed to win them over by distributing cycles to girl students. Owning a cycle in a village is like possessing a Maruti car in a city. Interestingly, the idea of distributing cycles was floated by a chief secretary during the last leg of the Left Front rule, but the proposal was bluntly shot down by the then finance minister Asim Dasgupta.  

 Finally, distribution of rice at Rs 2 per kg came as Mamata’s masterstroke. Better road connectivity, availability of water and medicines increased the Trinamool’s vote share. Though corruption was clearly visible, local Trinamool leaders were pardoned by the rural voters. Issues like the Saradha chit fund scam, Narada sting operation, flyover collapse and campus violence eroded the Trinamool’s vote share, but the erosion was confined to urban seats and every Narada-tainted minister won, albeit with a lower margin.

So, where does Mamata go from here? Insiders say Delhi is her next target. If the Third Front takes shape after the Uttar Pradesh elections, she hopes to play a major role at the Centre. Till then, she will concentrate on the next panchayat election in West Bengal to further consolidate her position. 

 (The writer is a senior journalist based in Kolkata)