Missile missives from North Korea

A proactive American diplomacy, however distasteful to the US, can be the only way of finding a solution.

A decade ago, then US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said, “We are not going to live with a nuclear North Korea. We are not going to accept it.” Only a few days after he made this statement, North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon in October 2006. Ten years later, it has tested them three more times and carried out scores of missile test launches.

Year 2016 has been particularly an active one. In fact, North Korea dictator Kim Jong-un ensured it literally started with a bang for everyone, when the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) greeted the world with its fourth nuclear test on Jan 6, 2016. The country claimed that it had detonated its first hydrogen bomb, which was a “complete success.”

A rocket launch was undertaken in February and on March 9, the country claimed that it had mastered miniaturisation capability and could launch 1,000 kg payload on Unha 3 missile to reach Alaska. On April 15, Pyongyang announced the conduct of another land-based missile of over 3,000 km range.

Even as this reportedly failed, another missile test was undertaken a week later, this time from a submarine. It travelled a mere 30 km. But, it was a success over an earlier similar test in December 2015 that had fail-ed at ignition. Literally inching towards better capabilities, on June 22, Pyongyang announced another two launches of its 3,000-4,000 km intermediate range missile. While one failed, the other was a success as it flew 400 km over the Sea of Japan.

Such claims, notwithstanding the failures, rattle the world, especially the US, Japan and South Korea. Missile defence deployments continue in these nations and in recent years, an incipient internal debate in Tokyo and Seoul on having nuclear deterrents of their own has also been heard. Meanwhile, the international community normally responds to DPRK provocations with the usual criticism and rounds of ‘most stringent sanctions’.

The last time North Korea undertook such an act, the UN Security Council imposed heavier sanctions that included inspection of all cargo in and out of the country, ban on all weapons trade and an expansion of the list of prohibited individuals. Obviously, little is working as the North Korean regime remains immune to both the impact of the sanctions as well as the hardships faced by its people.

Goodies for the leaders continue to roll in from China, which remains North Korea's largest trading partner accounting for more than 74% of its trade. Meanwhile, American reports suggest that Pakistan continues to sell nuclear materials which itself has procured from Chinese entities to DPRK.

What exactly is the message that Pyongyang is seeking to convey through the monthly missile launches? Why does it seemingly remain undeterred by test failures? The first message, of course, is that even the failures are helping make technology gains, pushing North Korea bit by bit towards what Kim calls a “pre-emptive nuclear attack capability” to be able to hit Japan and Guam, at the least.

No direct talks

A second missive of the missiles, especially for the US, is “Engage with us”. While Washington has remained rigid on not talking directly to Pyongyang in recent times, the fact remains that there is little chance that a political solution could be found unless the two negotiate bilaterally. This is a major lesson from Iranian nuclear deal too.

The moment Washington and Tehran began direct talks, a resolution looked possible. So, while the Six Party talks could provide a platform, Washington and Pyongyang will have to engage each other. For now, North Korea remains low on American foreign policy priorities even as Kim Jong-un hankers for attention. But, ironically, the more he provokes, the more he alienates himself.

Outsourcing the resolution of the DPRK problem to China cannot yield desired results. China can hardly be desirous of reining in a problem that keeps US on the tenterhooks. Why should it be interested in finding a way to disarm North Korea and have its allies sitting at its own borders? And as a North Korean leader had said soon after the conduct of nuclear test “A new puppy knows no fear”. Ten years older, the young nuclear country remains as fearless and ready to play its nuclear-missile games.

Proactive American diplomacy, however distasteful it may appear to the US, can be the only way of finding a solution to this problem. Bitter bilateral hostility and lack of effective American leadership in the run up to the elections do not yet offer a promise of this kind.

Meanwhile, one can well predict more missile tests by Kim Jong-un closer to the end of the year as he would try to catch the attention of the new American president. It remains to be seen who that would be and whether he/she would like to earn his/her foreign policy credits by decoding the missile missives flying out of Pyongyang.

But the earlier it happens, the better since DPRK continues to sharpen its nuclear teeth – a development that could result in serious consequences for international security.

(The writer is Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi)