SAD-BJP battle for a hat-trick

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), along with its time-tested alliance partner the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), shocked political pundits by retaining power in the 2012 Punjab Assembly elections, mainly due to the follies of the Congress. 

No party or alliance had ever achieved this feat in the state and now the partners are hoping for a hat-trick at the cost of a divided Opposition. The next elections due in February 2017 would also be the first time when there is a distinct possibility of a three, or may be even a four-cornered credible contest, instead of a direct clash between the alliance partners and the Congress as has been the case so far. 

The ensuing election appears to be the swansong for 89-year-old patriarch and five-time Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, but unfortunately for him and his party, the coalition is facing a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. It was this anger against the coalition in the state and similar sentiments against the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre that paved the way for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to win four Lok Sabha seats in 2014 from Punjab.

For the coalition partners, nothing much has changed since then, except that the voters’ anger may have increased. The SAD-BJP coalition government has, during the interim period, faced a strong agitation by the farmers whose cotton crop was ruined last year due to a fake pesticides scandal. The coalition subsequently faced serious onslaught from Sikh devouts in the wake of a series of instances of desecration of the Sikh holy book, the Guru Granth Sahib. Two devotees were killed in police firing and even now there is no arrest of the culprits who played with Sikh sentiments.

The state government, with Sukhbir Singh Badal as the deputy chief minister as well as the home minister, has also been facing protests from a section of employees. There are reports of increase in the scourge of corruption. There is also a perceptible anger against the SAD’s decision to appoint Halka in-charges (in-charge for each Assembly constituency) who enjoy backing of the government. The police act only on their diktat and there have been numerous incidents of high-handedness.

There is also a perception that the Badals and their extended family act as a “mafia” for major businesses like transport and mining. Worse, some of them are accused of “controlling” the drug trade. Given the high incidence of drug addiction in the state, which the SAD-BJP government stoutly denies, this allegation is being politically exploited by the Congress as well as the AAP.

Industry shifting

Massive unemployment is another serious issue facing the government, mainly because of its inability to lure industrialists. On the contrary, there have been reports of the industry shifting out of the state due to rampant corruption and lack of incentives. An indication of the extent of the problem is the ongoing police recruitment for the post of constables. Over seven lakh youth applied for a few hundred posts and many of the applicants have much higher qualification than what is required. 

The coalition government has not done badly during its tenure. There is a marked improvement in infrastructure, particularly the quality of highways. The government has also fulfilled some of its promises like an international airport and building modern bus stations, besides improving railway connectivity, with generous help from the Centre. It has also done a good job in bringing governance reforms. A major reform was bringing about 60 services, like issue of licences and certificates, besides RTI and land records, within the ambit of Right of Services. For each of the services there is a time-bound assurance. 

These steps, however, do not counter the perception that a few influential people, close to the Badals, are controlling the smuggling of drugs and also essentials such as building materials and transport. Besides, there is no significant let up in the scourge of corruption and high-handedness of local goons who had been controlling the local police and administration. 

Yet it would be one of the most difficult elections to predict. This is mainly because it is heading for a three or four-cornered contest and the outcome would depend on mathematical calculations of who cuts into whose vote bank and how much. How different parties will build up their campaign in the next few weeks would be watched very closely.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Chandigarh)