Uri response, a game changer

Avenging martyrs: After years of strategic restraint, India tells Pakistan enough is enough

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated an unprecedented politico-military will in giving the go ahead for surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

The surgical strikes were undertaken by the army’s elite Parachute Regiment Special Forces, sending out a clear and categorical signal to Pakistan that it will now have to pay for the “low-cost high-effect” proxy war being waged against India for the last 26 years.

The terror strike on the army camp at Uri on September 18, just 6 km from the LoC, where 19 soldiers were martyred, was the proverbial last straw. The anger and anguish spread across the entire length and breadth of the country, especially so as it came after another high visibility attack on the Pathankot Air Force base in January. The Lakshman Rekha had been crossed and the public sentiment needed to be assuaged.

The NDA government had invested a considerable amount of political capital in improving relations with Pakistan. The meeting between the two prime ministers at Ufa on July 15, 2015, was followed by a terrorist strike at Gurdaspur on July 28. Again, Modi’s outreach to his counterpart by way of a stopover at Lahore on December 24 was paid back by a terror attack at the Pathankot Air Base. Diplomatic and economic offensive alone have not yielded results over the years and it has emboldened Pakistan to perpetuate more and more terror attacks not only in Kashmir, but across the country as well.

The military option finally exercised and flawlessly planned, coordinated and executed by the army has raised the bar. Pakistan can no longer perpetuate terror strikes in India with impunity, the costs have been raised as India for once has synergised all elements of national power by launching a well-calibrated offensive in all domains to include diplomatic, informational, economic, political and more importantly, military.

For the first time, the military has been permitted to launch punitive operations across the LoC. The military response is essential as it is visible and showcases a nation’s resolve to protect its interests. With the impending onset of winter, it was an imperative for Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to infiltrate terrorists to exploit the prevailing situation in the Kashmir Valley and also to carry out terror strikes prior to and during the festival season.

The strikes at the terrorist launch pads is a master stroke by the army where in a single operation, they have executed both punitive operations avenging the martyrdom  of our 19 soldiers and pre-emptive operations, in destroying the terrorists and their launch pads.

The army must be complimented on the choice of cross LoC targets which are the terrorist bases. For one, the choice of targets demonstrates India’s strategic restraint, while responding in the tactical domain. The Indian Director General of Military Operation’s call to his counterpart in the afternoon of September 29 saying that the operations have been closed, gave a clear signal to Pakistan of the objectives, thus minimising the chances of any escalation.

In addition, the targets, though in the tactical domain, were spread from Bhimber to Kel on either side of the Pir Panjal – a few hundred kilometres apart – demonstrated our capability and capacities to hit when and wherever required.

The key question is, what are the options before Pakistan. The chances of Pakistan stepping up the escalation ladder is very low.  Pakistan army chief Gen Raheel Sharif is expected to retire on November 28, but it is also rumoured that he is likely to be promoted as the field marshal.

Will he do something to redeem his image? It is doubtful, as he is well aware of the consequences of a war with India. It is a historical fact that Pakistan stands defeated in all previous wars. There are reports that the Pakistan armed forces have been on high alert since the Uri attack as a preparation to India’s likely military retaliation. Pakistan will continue to be on high alert.

Conventional war

However, any escalation in the conventional spectrum of war is unlikely. Pakistan is well aware of Indian military’s conventional superiority. In fact, it is certain that the Indian armed forces would have in its usual professional manner, war-gamed the options and prepared for all contingencies. The Indian Army knows well that operational preparedness and readiness is a sure way of preventing war. Also, Pakistan has limited options, and given the internal security situation, its involvement in Operation Zarb-e-Azb (a joint military offensive conducted by the Pakistan armed forces against various militant groups) and in Afghanistan, an economy that is in a state of near-collapse and which is badly in need of the $46 billion Chinese investment in the  China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). 

Islamabad can ill afford a counterattack against a militarily superior India, with notional diplomatic support from China. Pakistan will continue to wage the proxy war with possible retaliation on the LoC and an increase in ceasefire  violations.  However, India’s intelligence agencies and the police should be prepared to counter high-visibility terror strikes in the metros and the hinterland. Pakistan may also target Indian assets and citizens in Afghanistan through the Taliban. The armed forces also need to review and beef up security of the vulnerable administrative installations and bases, especially those near the border areas as these will be the likely targets. India and the Indian Army have shown an unprecedented resolve and given a well-calibrated response, albeit in the tactical domain.

The surgical strikes have achieved the desired results, it is now imperative to ensure that the initiative is not lost and the isolation of Pakistan in the diplomatic and economic domain is taken to its logical conclusion, raising the costs of the proxy war.

(The writer is former Director General of Military Operations and presently Director, Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, New Delhi)