For thousands of years, the global temperature has remained almost constant, up until the industrial revolution of the 19th century. The industrial revolution caused the average temperature to go up by about 0.3°C. But in February 2016, there was a temperature spike of 2.76°C in the northern hemisphere, as reported and confirmed by NASA.
This unprecedented temperature rise was only temporary, but still caused widespread concern among scientists. Climate change is definitely occurring, but we were not expected to cross the two degree Celsius mark for many years. That mark has long been declared to be the point above which climate change would be directly hazardous for our species and many others. Now that we have temporarily touched this higher temperature, it brings a level of urgency to our battle against this threat.
Decoding the impactProfessor N H Ravindranath from the Indian Institute of Sciences (IISc), Bengaluru and his team have studied the effects of climate change on Indian forests since 2006. In one of their studies, they used climate change models to determine the fate of forests in the future. They predicted that forests in India would undergo major shifts in vegetation type because of the variations in the temperature and levels of rainfall. “Temperature spikes of 1.5 to 2°C more than the normal will not greatly impact forests in any way in the short term. However, if the mean increases on a long-term basis, it will definitely impact biodiversity and wildlife,” cautions Professor Ravindranath.
But that is not all. Even on a short-term basis, such temperature spikes can wreak havoc on entire ecosystems. “In case of a drought the previous year, such temperatures can bring about extreme water scarcity,” explains Professor Ravindranath. This translates to reduced plant growth, which leads to a drop in prey numbers. The last two years have been especially hard on Indian forests, what with the El Nino phenomenon reducing rainfall and raising temperatures. Water holes and ponds are drying, and this has caused problems to almost all species of wildlife in the country.
The research team has predicted that by 2030, we will be faced with a mean warming of 1.5 to 2°C. This could be devastating for natural ecosystems and may even cause extinction of several species of animals that are unable to adapt to the change in temperature. By 2080, we can expect to look at a temperature rise of about four to six degree Celsius. Unless global patterns of fuel generation and use change, this is the bleak future we can look forward to.
So, how do we begin to tackle this mammoth issue? Professor Ravindranath says, “We have to start working on short-term as well as long-term measures. Climate change is a long-term environmental concern. Immediately, we need to look at measures to conserve oil and water and build resilience in communities, as well as prevent degradation of natural ecosystems.”
Climate change is an issue that all nations have contributed to, and one that all of us are struggling to mitigate now. But do we know everything about it? “We still do not know exactly how the phenomenon will affect wildlife, or what exactly will happen. But what we do know is that there will be major shifts in forest types in the world. For example, the Western Ghats could undergo a complete shift in vegetation type in the next 6-100 years. What happens to wildlife then?” wonders Professor Ravindranath.
He regrets that unfortunately, neither the forest department nor the government is too keen to address this threat. “They talk about the issue from global and political perspectives, but on the ground, very little is being done,” he adds. Educating the public about climate change and implementing laws that are already in place is the way to go forward now.
(The author is with Gubbi Labs, a Bengaluru-based research collective)