Will Modi's gamble win votes?

The government’s Nov 8 decision to abolish high denomination currency notes appears to have opened a Pandora’s box.

More than 10 days into the announcement, the government is still grappling with the logistical nightmare of its implementation greatly inconveniencing millions of common people. If the prime minister fails to contain its adverse fall out on the economy and the citizenry, the BJP may have to pay a heavy political price in the upcoming elections in five states, including the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (UP).

The “bold initiative” peppered with “nationalistic spirit” was also a trap for the Opposition as anyone opposing a decision meant to curb black money would be seen as unpatriotic and corrupt. Even as the BJP is planning to make it a campaign issue in the upcoming elections, Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal, while trying to “expose” the prime minister’s “selective” crusade against corruption, said that Modi as Gujarat chief minister received Rs 25 crore bribe from a corporate entity. He flashed some documents before the media to this effect early this week, though the BJP trashed the allegation. The BSP and the Congress are expected to flag this issue in UP to target Modi.    

The BJP managers calculate that the demonetisation will help the party electorally as it would severely cripple the money power of its principal opponents - the BSP, SP and the Congress in UP where polls are just three months away. Several Opposition parties have gone public charging the BJP of having leaked the currency plans to certain party functionaries and business houses close to it, and that the BJP had enough time to discreetly manage its election funds. Crying foul, the Opposition has sought a Joint Parliamentary Committee probe into demonetisation and an inquiry into the “leak”.

While Modi himself had said he was preparing for the currency reform for the last 10 months, Power Minister Piyush Goel had informed the Rajya Sabha that a decision to his effect was taken by the RBI board  “on October 20”, and that the prime minister announced the decision on November 8, 18 days later. According to reports, many banks recorded a huge and unusual surge in deposits in the month of September. Does it mean that some big sharks and the BJP had prior information about the impending economic surgery?

In UP, both the BSP and SP have already shortlisted a majority of their respective candidates. Mayawati is known to collect Rs 1 crore from each candidate as donation. The BJP says both BSP and the ruling dispensation - the SP – have been severely hit by the demonetisation move and that they may now be forced to resort to traditional way of electioneering.  The BJP, plush with cash, has the advantage of running a high-voltage campaign.

Reverse polarisation

Even as the elites, sections of middle and lower-middle class blindly back demonetisation due to ideological reasons, a reverse polarisation of the numerically strong poor, marginalised, working class and farmers, who are facing the brunt of the reform, cannot be ruled out. The poll outcome in the key state of Uttar Pradesh will determine whether Modi’s gamble will pay off in the next parliamentary polls.  

Never in the history of independent India have people died outside banks and ATMs trying to withdraw their legitimate and hard-earned money. Serpentine queues outside banks across the country – of poor, marginalised and the middle-class citizens – extreme shortage of lower denomination cash and the anger welling up against the establishment are reminiscent of Moscow in 1991-92 soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

However, the aftershock of badly implemented reform could spoil the BJP’s party in 2019. The people are hassled, first three days of Parliament washed out, the Opposition, by and large, is united and even the BJP allies like the Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena are becoming restive now. After the initial gung ho, the BJP managers appear to have realised that the government has committed a blunder and that the gathering storm might rob them of the anticipated political advantage.

That is why the entire party, the RSS and the government machinery are being mobilised to counter the Opposition “propaganda” that the government is anti-poor, while the BJP’s cyber army keeps the “patriotic” narrative – “little inconvenience is a sacrifice for the greater good of the country” - afloat. Nationalism matrix sans economic upliftment of the common man is not enough to win elections. Anti-Congressism of the past may slowly be giving way to anti-BJPism, a worrying development for the ruling party at the Centre.

(The writer is a New Delhi-based political commentator)