With Mulayam's house in disarray, Muslims may veer towards BSP

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is closely watching the developments unfolding inside its arch-rival Samajwadi Party (SP).

Prior to the latest development, demonetisation seemed to have overtaken all other issues in the caste-ridden politics of Uttar Pradesh in the run-up to the Assembly elections.

Arguably, the note ban crisis should make or mar only the prospects of the BJP whose government at the Centre was responsible for the decision. The people’s satisfaction may help the BJP, while their anger may benefit the Opposition in proportion to the share of their support among the voters.

The BSP, claiming to be the natural alternative of the ruling SP and considered to be a major beneficiary of the so-called “ five-year misrule”, is placed in an unenviable situation. This because of the disclosures made by the Enforcement Directorate that old currency notes worth several crores of  rupees were deposited in the accounts of the party and Anand Kumar, BSP supremo Mayawati’s brother, immediately after demonetisation was announced. Mayawati has claimed that everything was done in accordance with the existing rules and there was nothing illegal in deposits either in the accounts of her own party or that of her brother. She, however, finds it hard to evade the controversy.

Mayawati has been prone to pointing out to her Dalit vote bank that political parties dominated by the upper castes never wanted a “Dalit ki beti” to prosper and raised all kinds of charges to defame her. The BSP said the charges that cash deposits were illegally made in the accounts of her party and her brother reflected a casteist and anti-Dalit mindset of the BJP and its leaders. The BJP had used similar tactics earlier to malign her image with the disproportionate assets case and the Taj Corridor issue, Mayawati argued.

That Mayawati has been forced to target the BJP, instead of her main rival SP, makes her discomfiture evident. There must be ample ammunition in her armoury to target the SP for its misrule, but it may be of little use. She has been compelled to protect herself against bantering accusations made by her BJP rivals that she is a “daulat ki beti” (daughter of wealth) and not daughter of a Dalit as she claims.

Several BSP MLAs, including former leader of the Opposition in the Assembly Swami Prasad Maurya, resigned from her party to join the BJP in the recent past. Most of them made allegations that Mayawati demanded huge amounts of cash to distribute tickets to contest elections from her party. The allegations have come in handy to her critics to reason out why large amounts of cash were deposited in her party account after demonetisation.

The BSP has, however, found unexpected solace in the open rift in the SP. The differences between the rival factions – one led by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and the other by his uncle and state party chief Shivpal Yadav – which had been intermittently showing up, led to Akhilesh’s expulsion from the party, but it was later revoked. Both camps had announced separate list of candidates to contest the upcoming Assembly elections which led to Akhilesh’s expulsion.

The minority vote

The BSP would naturally be eyeing the Muslims, the main support base of the SP besides the Yadavs.

The minorities may not be convinced by the latest compromise between the
father and son, and the BSP hopes that they will veer towards their party. With the future still tense for the SP, the ruling party would naturally give a weak challenge to the BJP. And the Muslim voters who want a non-BJP government in Uttar Pradesh may find the BSP as the only solid choice, which will be a windfall for Mayawati.

The BSP cadres have taken due note of the fact and gone ahead with their strategy to hold meetings in minority-dominated areas. People belonging to the weaker sections, such as the Dalits, daily-wage earners, petty shop keepers etc., have been the worst hit by demonetisation.

Whether they are convinced with the BJP’s argument that the discomfort was worth taking to ward off the menace of black money is not clear. The impact of a Dalit-Muslim combine in support of the BSP would largely depend on the people’s general perception. The same can be true about the traditional support of the Brahmins and traders community to the BJP. The situation at present is in a flux.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Lucknow)