Coalition lacks political sagacity Zulfikar Majid

At a time when killings, clashes and use of social media to stoke passions has become the norm in Kashmir, the inept handling of the situation by an oblivious PDP-BJP coalition government has only worsened the political and security scenario in the Valley to such an extent that a repeat of the 2016 unrest cannot be ruled out.

If rising attacks on civilians by militants, killings of protesters by security forces and the lowest ever turnout in the recent parliamentary bypoll to the Srinagar seat are any indication, the summer of 2017 might be worse than what people have been through in the last decade. To make matters worse, the situation appears to be slipping out of the hands of both the state and the Central governments.

It looks like Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has failed in convincing the Centre to initiate a dialogue process with all stakeholders in Jammu and Kashmir, including the separatists. The PDP won majority of its seats in the 2014 Assembly elections in Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, claiming that it was the only party which could stop the rise of the BJP in the state and defeat its “divisive agenda.”

However, a few months later, the PDP entered into an alliance with the BJP to form the government after the elections threw a hung House. To assure its voters, the PDP said the government was formed only after signing an “Agenda of Alliance (AoA)”, which states that the government will initiate a sustained and meaningful dialogue with political groups, irrespective of their ideological views and predilections.

But the inherent contradictions within the two parties came to the fore a few weeks later. The tipping point was when Prime Minister Narendra Modi snubbed Mehbooba’s father – the then chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed – in a rally in Srinagar in November 2015. Modi said he does not need advice or analysis from anyone on Kashmir. Mufti had tried to advise Modi about embarking on a “big brotherly” friendship and dialogue with Pakistan and the separatists.

The BJP’s hard stance will not only help it to consolidate the Hindu vote in the Jammu region, but also across the country. A tense Kashmir will act as a disability for the PDP to seek fulfilment of the points in the AoA that go against the BJP’s stated stand. If the current situation continues, Mehbooba will continue to remain under the clutches of the BJP-led Centre till they need her. It has the potential to decimate the regional party whose vote bank lies in the Valley.

However, in the tussle between the BJP and PDP to outsmart each other, it is the Kashmir situation which is getting worse by the day. The current approach of the central and the state governments is shocking. Former finance and home minister P Chidambaram recently said that India was “losing Kashmir” because of its “muscular policy”. Radicalisation is taking over the socio-political discourse of the Valley and gaining greater appeal. The pro-Pakistan narrative, which was noticeably weak, has also become apparently strong in recent times.

The alliance government is not only bereft of political sagacity, it has also entirely failed in delivering on security. The lowest ever voter turnout in the recent bypolls and deferment of Anantnag bypoll are indications that the government has “surrendered” before stone-pelting mobs. The alliance government has also failed to deliver on the developmental front as nearly a million unemployed youth are hankering for jobs.

It is the high time that the prime minister, who is maintaining a stubborn silence, initiates some “confidence building measures” which can be a prelude to dialogue. New Delhi could begin with recognising and conceding in public that negotiation, and not repression, is the solution.