Mosul liberation: counting the cost

The "triumph" over Islamic State in the battle for Mosul proclaimed by Baghdad and its allies increasingly looks like a pyrrhic victory. While Iraqi troops mop up cult fighters in western Mosul, the city's residents have begun to count the costs of the nine-month "liberation" campaign prosecuted in two phases.

The first took place in east Mosul from October until February when elite Iraqi forces battled IS on the streets; the second from mid-February until mid-June when massive fire power was used to dislodge cult fighters from west Mosul. Amnesty International has accused the Iraqi army and the US and its partners of using "disproportionate" force.

Between 6,800 and 5,800 civilians have been killed by the Iraqi government and US attacks on west Mosul and 6 lakh have been displaced. Hundreds if not thousands have been slain by the IS as they tried to escape or refused to obey the cult orders.

West Mosul has been bombed and shelled mercilessly with wide-impact munitions not suited to urban warfare. There was no serious effort to preserve civilian lives. Many neighbourhoods and the Old Town, with its historic mosque, have been reduced to rubble. Unexploded ordnance and booby-traps lurk in the ruins, ensuring it could take months if not years to clear the city, once Iraq's second most populace city and a key trading hub.

The government forces and militia allies have been executing IS captives and throwing their bodies into the Tigris River. While some killers claim captives could bribe their way to freedom once they are in prison, others are wreaking revenge or simply slaying Sunnis. So far the Shia fundamentalist government has failed to halt torture, killings and abuses which had led Sunnis to embrace IS in 2014.

Women and children related to IS fighters are being detained in a camp north of Tikrit where there is insufficient food, water, shelter and medical care. Displaced civilians, cleared of collaboration with IS, have been confined in other under-funded camps. Civilians remaining in Mosul's Old City, where pockets of jihadi fighters continue to resist, are facing death from bombs, dehydration, starvation and murder by the fighters.

In spite of widespread and continuing violations of the laws of war by Iraqi government forces and their western and Iranian allies, international media, which has correspondents embedded with Iraqi troops, has failed to castigate the perpetrators of this catastrophe with the vigour used to condemn the Syrian government when it drove insurgents from eastern Aleppo late last year.

Once the fighting is over in “liberated” areas, secular Damascus is likely to clear explosives and rubble, restore electricity and water, and open schools to encourage civilians to return to their homes.

In Iraq, the government continues to operate as a Shia sectarian body reluctant to reconcile with Sunnis and other minority communities. Some 3.3 million Iraqis, the vast majority Sunnis, have been driven from their homes during offensives to retake territory from IS. Warfare is certain to continue as Tel Afar, west of Mosul, al-Qaim, to the south and Hawija to the east remain under cult control.

Baghdad has failed to return residents to Fallujah, Ramadi, Takrit and other cities liberated months ago from IS. Bureaucratic procedures and corruption obstruct reconstruction. Essential supplies trickle into devastated cities, delaying the return of displaced citizens who are prevented from going home to some towns and cities. Municipalities have not been restored, leaving entire cities, towns and villages without local governance.

Funds for reconstruction

Baghdad, its US and Iranian allies and regional officials have to formulate a plan for governing and reconstructing Mosul and the Sunni-majority provinces of Nineveh, Salahuddin, and Anbar where, after the 2003 US occupation, al-Qaeda took root. Without a plan, there will be no funds for reconstruction.

Sunni civilians will remain homeless and potential recruits for IS or its successors. Members of the cult have already gone underground to regroup and continue with bombings, shootings, and sabotage.

Funds for rebuilding depend on foreign donors and lenders, effective management and minimal graft. So far, none of these elements is present. Agencies find it impossible to raise enough funding for humanitarian aid for Iraqis displaced by the war against IS. Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi has said reconstruction could cost $100 billion.

Restoring effective administration in Mosul, Ramadi, Falluja and other Sunni cities is essential for the survival of Iraq and stabilisation of the region. Before the rise of IS, the three Sunni-majority provinces, alienated by Baghdad, had called for autonomy comparable to the self-rule enjoyed by the Kurds in their region. Baghdad has rejected this demand fearing new autonomous areas could fracture Iraq.

The Kurds, who plan to hold a referendum on independence in September, used IS' capture of Mosul to seize the oil-hub of Kirkuk and other tracts of territory along the border of their region and intend to annex these areas. This would risk war with Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara, opponents of Kurdish self-determination, and launch a fresh conflict in a war-ravaged region.