After Saudi King Salman took the throne in January 2015 he appointed his favourite son, Muhammad bin Salman, 31, minister of defence, gave him control over the economy and foreign affairs, and made him crown prince. With his father firmly behind him, bin Salman has adopted failed policies on the domestic and regional fronts with the objective of reforming the kingdom and projecting its power. To silence critics and consolidate his power, he has cracked down on dissent by detaining popular clerics, businessmen, an economist, a poet, and Abdel Aziz bin Fahd, son of a former king who was the current monarch’s brother.
On the home front, bin Salman has been spurred by the low price of oil to issue Vision 2030, an overly ambitious plan for transformation of Saudi Arabia's oil-dependent economy, where an unhealthy 70% of government revenues come from oil exports. A year after its launch, the plan is being redrafted, causing confusion and discouraging investors.
The first phase of the original plan called for generating $100 billion in non-oil revenue by 2020, privatising state assets, providing affordable housing, creating 1.2 million private sector posts for Saudis, reducing unemployment from 11.6% to 9% and restructuring the financial sector. Women were to increase their participation in the labour market from 22% to 30%, the number of Muslim pilgrims was to rise from eight million to 80 million a year, and a tourism sector was to be created for conservative visitors.
The sale of 5% of the shares in the state oil company Saudi Aramco, set to take place next year, may be put off to 2019. The aim is to raise funds for investment, but there is speculation that its $2 trillion valuation is too high, making prospective investors cautious. The International Monetary Fund predicts Saudi economic growth will fall from 1.7% in 2016 to 0.1% this year.
Saudi Arabia also has serious internal security concerns. Last week, Riyadh announced the arrest of two Yemeni and two Saudi Islamic State operatives who were plotting to blow up the defence ministry. This spring, Saudi security forces besieged and bombarded al-Awamiyah, a Shia town in the Eastern Province, after armed protesters rejected the bulldozing of the town’s 400-year old traditional quarter. The majority Sunni kingdom's 2.5 million Shia minority has long suffered persecution and repression, causing instability.
On the regional front, bin Salman's efforts to project the kingdom's military might and political influence have embroiled Riyadh in two wars and a damaging dispute. The Saudi-led coalition has lost the war in Yemen, destroyed the region's poorest country and created massive civilian suffering. Saudi Arabia and its Arab and Western allies are accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity and widely condemned by human rights organisations and world public opinion.
Saudi paramilitaries and political proxies have been told by UN mediator Staffan de Mistura that they have lost the war in Syria and should be prepared to negotiate, at a disadvantage, with the government during talks set for next month in Geneva. Regime change, the Saudi war aim, is no longer an option as government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, have driven insurgents from half the territory of the country and Damascus rules 80% of Syrians living in the country.
By sticking to unacceptable demands in its dispute with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, which has long sought to assert the leading role in the region, is dividing the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, undermining Gulf solidarity, and alienating other Arab governments.
The Sunni Saudis have not been able to counter Shia Iran's influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, or bludgeon into capitulation Yemeni Houthi rebels, accused by Riyadh of being Iran’s allies. The Saudis oppose the six-power deal with Iran providing for the dismantling of its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, but have not been able to undermine the July 2015 accord.
Riyadh counts on the Trump administration to achieve this aim but Europe, India, Russia and China do not want the deal scuppered. It benefits West Asia by removing the threat of Iranian nuclear bombs while allowing Iran to sell its oil, court potential investors to update and rebuild its long-neglected oil infrastructure and prospect for new oil and gas fields as well as to engage in trade.
On the global front, Saudi Arabia's multibillion dollar drive to export its puritanical ideology and practices is meeting resistance across the world. Saudi mosque and madrassa-building and preacher training is no longer welcomed by many countries due to the adoption of the kingdom's ideology and regressive social and cultural impositions by radical jihadi groups and individuals in Muslim countries and elsewhere. Al-Qaeda and its off-shoots, including Islamic State, inspired by Saudi Wahhabism, are seen as "terrorists" to be extirpated wherever they are found.
To counter negative perceptions and media coverage of the kingdom, Saudi Arabia plans to set up public relations offices in London, Berlin, Paris and Moscow this year and in Mumbai, Beijing, and Tokyo next year. According to a document obtained by the Financial Times, the aim is to "promote the changing face of (the kingdom) to the rest of the world and to improve (its) international (image).” This cannot happen until the kingdom modernises internally and ends external conflicts it should not have started in the first place.