It's not going to be easy for Rajinikanth , Kamal Haasan

It is not going to be easy for the voters of Tamil Nadu to decide on their choices in the 2019 general elections and the subsequent 2021 assembly elections. Even political pundits seem unsure of which way the wind will blow. In a state where voters are politically aware and articulate, there are hardly any clues as to their political choices, beyond unreliable social media chatter. Everyone is watching, trying to make sense of a fluid political situation.

In the past, the two Dravidian parties DMK and AIADMK, led by strong leaders, had provided a binary option to voters. That is likely to change with the entry into politics of two ageing film stars – Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth – who wield enormous influence over masses in a state that has a track record of voting actor-politicians to power.

The RK Nagar byelections, held in the wake of the death of J Jayalalitha, was initially thought to provide some answers. It was largely a three-cornered fight between the MK Stalin-led DMK and two rival AIADMK factions (one led by EPS-OPS and another by Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dhinakaran) locked in a power struggle to wrest control over the cash-rich cadre-based party.

The victory of Dhinakaran was interpreted in many ways – that money power was effective in a constituency, but may not be so across the state; that Dhinakaran could not be written off yet; that despite being in power, the E Palaniswami-O Paneerselvam (EPS-OPS) combine lost a byelection; or that MK Stalin cannot assume he will have an edge over post-Jayalalitha AIADMK; and that the BJP, in power at the Centre, can only be a puppeteer.

Soon after the RK Nagar byelections, the political scenario changed dramatically when Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth revealed their political intentions and turned the state's politics into a multi-starrer political thriller. After a lot of dithering, Rajinikanth -- who followed the MGR formula of portraying the good Samaritan – finally took the plunge. Actor Kamal Haasan, who had been wearing "progressive politics" on his sleeve – a combination of left-of-centre politics and Dravidian rationalism – too threw his hat into the ring. The plot has begun to thicken.

The two actors are being seen as serious political contenders given their sway over their fans. The question is, will they succeed in translating the adoration of fans into votes and join the club of MGR, Jayalalitha and NTR, or end up as B-list politicians like Vijaykanth in Tamil Nadu and Chiranjeevi in Andhra Pradesh.

There are many imponderables. Times have changed, voters have matured. Many may still vote for an actor, but unlike in the past, they will do so less for his screen persona and more for his off-screen political credibility and governance potential. The promise and prospect of change should be realistic to be alluring. Moreover, it will be a psephologist's nightmare to get the voter arithmetic right since these fans have been voting or even been loyal to one of the two Dravidian parties until now.

Secondly, there is not one but two superstars in the ring at the same time, and there is no data on the geographical and constituency-wise spread of their fans. It will be mind-boggling to predict how many votes each superstar-turned-politician would garner in each constituency, and how much they would cut into the votes of the Dravidian parties.

Kamal Haasan at 63 and Rajinikanth at 67 are young enough for politics but are not as young as they are portrayed on the silver screen. It will be nearly impossible for them in real life to pull off a new act – that of a youthful leader who will bring a whiff of fresh air into a stagnant and archaic Dravidian politics that is reeking of corruption.

Politically, too, the two actors have nothing substantial or new to offer in terms of a development vision and agenda. Rajinikanth's "spiritual politics" is being viewed with suspicion in a state where people are religious but are averse to religious politics. That should explain the resistance to BJP and opposition to the pulling down of Periyar statues. Rajinikanth's personal and ideological proximity to BJP could hurt his political chances. Kamal Haasan, who has been sympathetic to rationalist ideas, Dravidian and Left politics and with pronounced sympathies for DMK, especially its leader Karunanidhi, in the past, might have better resonance among sections of Dravidian voters than Rajinikanth. Youth and women's vote may be the key to gathering critical mass at the hustings.

The Dravidian parties, especially the AIADMK lately, has played the politics of patronage and clientelism, wherein from subsidised food (through PDS, mid-day meals and Amma Canteens) to bicycles, laptops and household articles were doled out in exchange for past and future votes. Add to it the role of money power and blatant buying of votes in many key constituencies. The tussle will then be between the charisma of and promise of change offered by the actors and the patronage politics of the Dravidian parties.

All this will play out in the backdrop of changes in national politics wherein the influence of BJP is diminishing while the opposition, fragmented and facing its worst threat to survival, is closing ranks. Moreover, leaders such as Karnataka's Siddaramaiah, Andhra's Chandrababu Naidu and Kerala's Pinarayi Vijayan have been experimenting with Southern (as against Northern/cow-belt) identity within the bounds of constitutional federalism to counter the BJP's "Hindutva-Hindi nationalism".

Political circles in the state are rife with speculation, predictably centred on the future of the AIADMK. It was initially thought that after Jayalalitha's death, the AIADMK would disintegrate as it does not have a leader who can garner support and votes. The BJP, which has its own gameplan for a breakthrough in the state, is believed to have scripted the survival of AIADMK by consolidating and propping up the government.

Come elections, the speculation is that with BJP's blessings and persuasion, key AIADMK leaders, who had in the past rendered political and organisational services to MGR and/or Jayalalithaa, would join the Rajinikanth bandwagon. The state would have to brace itself for a multi-cornered contest and possibly a coalition government. But then, Tamil Nadu voters have always shown preference for giving a clear mandate for a stable government.  

In MGR and Jayalalitha, Tamil Nadu politics had witnessed a long political blockbuster starring successful actor-politicians. Now, a major sequel, starring Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan is in the offing. But sequels, whether in films or in politics, have rarely matched, leave alone surpassed, the original. Will it, this time?

(Mohan Ramamoorthy is a senior journalist)