Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Old rivalry tests old loyalties in this Malnad constituency

At a tea stall in Kaimara Circle in Bhadravathi taluk, Mallesh and his three friends are in an animated discussion on the Lok Sabha elections in this Malnad constituency. “It looks like Madhu Bangarappa has taken it as a matter of prestige,” Mallesh remarks.

Shimoga, the cradle of the socialist movement in Karnataka, is witnessing a straight fight for the fifth consecutive time between the families of two former chief ministers, something unparalleled in the state’s political history. Since 2009, parliamentary polls here have turned into a Yediyurappas versus the Bangarappas contest, with the former winning on all the occasions. 

As Mallesh reckoned, Madhu seems to have taken the 2009 defeat of his father at the hands of rookie B Y Raghavendra, Yediyurappa’s eldest son, quite seriously. At a press  conference on April 17, the Bangarappa scion said that his elder sister, Congress candidate Geetha Shivarajkumar, would trounce Raghavendra, thereby vindicating their father’s defeat 15 years ago.

If the Bangarappas want to “avenge” the defeat, this election appears to provide them the best opportunity. On three occasions previously, the Bangarappa siblings had contested as candidates of JD(S), whose influence was limited to just some pockets. Also, the transfer of Congress votes to the then alliance partner JD(S) reportedly did not happen on the expected lines in 2019. Now, as the Congress nominee, Geetha has full backing of the ruling party, which has a strong presence across the constituency.

With local issues taking a backseat this election, the Congress’ guarantees have turned Geetha’s trump card to beat the “Modi wave”, the BJP’s Brahmastra. “When we are getting free benefits worth around Rs 5,000 every month, we have to be indebted to the Siddaramaiah government. We will vote for Congress this time,” says Lalitha, a homemaker from a lower middle-class Havyaka Brahmin family in Anandapuram. This sentiment echoes across the constituency. 

Moreover, there is talk that votes of the numerically-strong (over two lakh votes) Ediga community, of which Bangarappa was the tallest leader, are getting consolidated in Geetha’s favour for two reasons: sympathy towards a storied family for losing multiple elections and a feeling among the OBC Edigas/Billavas that they are being neglected by the BJP.

Further, the BJP has to contend with K S Eshwarappa, a disgruntled veteran recently expelled, entering the contest as a rebel. This turn of events has also boosted the Congress’ prospects as his action would eat into the BJP votes to a certain extent, though Eshwarappa is unlikely to queer the pitch because his influence is ‘confined’ to Shimoga city.

For its part, however, the BJP does not seem much unnerved. Having won the 2019 battle by 2.23 lakh votes with leads in all the Assembly segments even when the Congress and the JD(S) were in alliance, the BJP camp is confident of a similar show with the JD(S) now on its side.

With a strong organisational network and having started the campaign quite early, it is hoping that the “Modi wave” will checkmate the Congress’ guarantees. “We may have got benefits from the Congress government, but our vote is for Modi as India needs him,” says Pavithra, a PhD scholar in Mathematics at Kuvempu University.

Further, the BJP’s campaign that Bengaluru-resident Geetha is an outsider to the constituency while Raghavendra lives here and is accessible has found resonance with the electorate. “Geethakka has hardly been seen in Shivamogga after losing the 2014 elections,” says Channappa of Anavatti, near Sorab.

The BJP’s biggest strength is the Lingayat strongman Yediyurappa, a veteran of many polls. His ability to draw strategies and win over leaders from different castes and parties just ahead of the elections is the stuff of local legend.

As of now, the contest appears almost even in Shivamogga district, and both the parties are focusing on the Byndoor Assembly segment of Udupi district which comes under Shimoga constituency.

The BJP had secured a massive lead of 78,000 votes in Byndoor alone the last time. While it is confident that this Hindutva citadel will strongly back it again, Congress leaders are pinning their hopes on Byndoor’s dominant Billava community to make the cut.

When the votes are counted on June 4, history will be created if Geetha wins. And repeated if Raghavendra retains his seat.