Lok Sabha polls 2024: TN to vote on April 19

Chennai: After an intense and hectic campaign, Tamil Nadu is set to vote on Friday to elect 39 Lok Sabha members in a single-phase election that is witnessing a keen triangular contest after a decade with three alliance formations led by the DMK, AIADMK, and BJP fighting it out.

The month-long campaign ended at 6 pm on Wednesday.

The electoral outcome, which will be known on June 4 after the completion of all seven phases of polls across the country, is likely to set the tone for the 2026 Assembly elections that are just about two years from now, which is much more crucial for the Dravidian majors than this election.

An estimated 6.23 crore people – 3.17 crore women, 3.06 crore men, and 8,467 (Third Gender) – are eligible to exercise their franchise from 7 am to 6 pm on April 19 in as many as 68,321 polling stations set up by the Election Commission of India (ECI).

An age-wise break-up of the voters show those between 40-49 years of age are the highest group at 1.37 crore, followed by 30-39 (1.29 crore), 20-29 (1.10 crore), 50-59 (1.10 crore), 60-69 (71.64 lakh), 70-79 (38.66 lakh), and 80+ (14.44 lakh), and 18-19 (10.92 lakh). As many as 950 candidates, including independents, are in the fray with Karur topping the list at 54 and Nagapattinam at the bottom with just nine candidates.

The largely bi-polar political fight has turned into an intense three-cornered contest this time around with the BJP, very keen to breach the Dravidian fortress, throwing its ring by cobbling up a rainbow coalition of parties that were part of the AIADMK alliance in the past.

Chief Minister M K Stalin’s whirlwind tour of the state and his sustained attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP branding them “anti-Tamil”, the arithmetic strength and cohesiveness of the alliance, and welfare programs of the three-year-old DMK government seem to have placed the ruling alliance in the driver’s seat.

 Stalin, who is one of the prime movers behind the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, wants a 40/40 figure, including the lone seat in Puducherry, as he hopes to play a major role in the formation of a non-BJP government at the Centre in the event of the Modi dispensation failing at the hustings.

Ground visits to southern and western districts of Tamil Nadu showed the presence of anti-incumbency against the DMK dispensation with people complaining about ever-increasing price rise and non-fulfillment of poll promises, but it may not be visible above the top. Add to this, a three-way split in opposition votes between AIADMK, BJP, and Naam Tamizhar Katchi.

AIADMK, the principal opposition party, ran a spirited campaign despite the optics and perception not being on its side, thanks to its general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami’s sharp attacks on the ruling DMK and belated criticism of the BJP, particularly its state unit chief K Annamalai. The AIADMK is using the 2024 elections as the preparatory ground for the ‘big battle’ in 2026 by conserving senior-level functionaries and their financial resources. The party has fielded middle-level leaders in the 2024 polls.

While hoping to win at least five to six seats, the AIADMK’s focus is on garnering over 25 per cent of votes this election to drive home the point that its “core vote bank” is intact and hasn’t been breached by anyone after the death of J Jayalalithaa. Both AIADMK and DMK, in the midst of the campaign, made a conscious attempt to make the contest look like a “bipolar one” as usual, by trying to dismiss the BJP.

Not just opening account on its own, the BJP is fervently hoping to increase its vote share to double digit and emerging the runner-up in about 10 to 12 constituencies by pushing its former ally, AIADMK, to the third spot. The party believes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign, aggressive politics of state unit chief K Annamalai, and the strength of alliance partners like PMK, and AIADMK rebels, T T V Dhinakaran, and O Panneerselvam, will help to garner a good percentage of votes this election.