Drained out by last year’s deficit rain, Karnataka may turn one big cauldron

The temperature is soaring in Karnataka. Weather agencies predict things will get worse. The heatwave outlook from March to May, issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) based on Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasting System, says the state will witness above-normal heatwaves for more days this season. 

IMD predicted that the state will witness 12-15 heatwave days between March and May and North Interior Karnataka (NIK) districts are likely to bear the brunt.

A heatwave is a period of abnormally high temperatures. IMD declares a heatwave if temperature of a particular place rises 4 degrees Celsius above normal or crosses 40 degrees Celsius for two continuous days. Heatwaves typically occur between March and June, and in rare cases, extend till July.

The extreme temperatures and resultant atmospheric conditions adversely affect people living in these regions as they cause physiological stress, sometimes resulting in death.

Sources in IMD Bengaluru say if the trend continues, 2024 could be worse than 2022, fifth warmest year for India since nationwide records commenced in 1901.

According to government reports, out
of 31 districts in state, 15 are vulnerable to heatwaves.

Climatological data indicates NIK districts are prone to high-temperature days. Other regions like south interior Karnataka (SIK), coastal and Malnad regions are less prone to high temperatures, due to maritime air over these regions. 

A closer look at maximum temperature recorded by districts in the last 7 years shows 24 of the 31 districts have regularly crossed 40℃, a threshold temperature to declare a region as heatwave-impacted. The 2024 summer also saw the majority of districts record temperatures above normal by 3℃ to 5℃.

Krishna Raj, professor at Centre for Economic Studies & Policy, Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bengaluru, says even though number of severe heatwave days have increased with an increase in average temperature, heatwave is not considered a natural disaster in the National Disaster Management Act 2005. Hence, governments don’t take necessary steps to manage heatwave-caused natural disasters.

Heatwave has an impact on human health, agriculture, livestock and water availability.

“Over the last two decades, there has been an increase in the number of heatwave days in Karnataka. There is a need for long-term and short-term plans to address this,” he says.

Doctors and weather experts say ideal temperature for humans in tropical conditions is 37℃.

“Whenever environmental temperature goes above 37℃, human body starts gaining heat from atmosphere. If humidity is high, a person can suffer heat stress disorders even with 37℃ or 38℃ as high humidity does not permit loss of heat from the body through perspiration,” says a senior doctor at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubballi. 

Kalaburagi-based economist Sangeetha Kattimani calls heatwave a “silent disaster”, as it develops slowly and causes irreversible health complications in humans and animals.

“Excess heat has multiple consequences on humans. Apart from health risk factors, including heat stokes and shocks, excess temperature reduces human efficiency, soil fertility and concentration among students,” she says. Sangeetha says prolonged high-temperature days in the region is one of the major reasons for region’s backwardness, resulting in low productivity, low GDP and high labour migration. 

Deficit rain during monsoon of 2023 has resulted in a shortfall in output of crops and scarcity of drinking water. Karnataka as a whole recorded 56% deficit rainfall in June 2023, third lowest in last 122 years. 

According to ‘Karnataka State Heatwave Action Plan 2024-25’ prepared by Karnataka State Disaster Management Authority and Revenue Department (Disaster Management): “Drought conditions, low storage in dams and decreased water table resulted in acute shortage of drinking water and conditions are more likely to worsen.”

Revenue department (disaster management) principal secretary V Rashmi Mahesh says evaporation rate of water at reservoirs has increased during summer, resulting in faster depletion of stored water for drinking purposes.

“Drinking water supply is of highest priority and all efforts are being made to ensure access to it. To provide relief to cattle and livestock, availability of fodder and water are being reviewed continuously,” she says.

While the state has officially not recorded any human casualties this year due to excess heat, doctors say many times deaths due to heat strokes and shocks go unreported.

The action plan suggests several measures to minimise impact of excess heat on humans, however, they are just on paper. One of the suggestions made in the action plan is a change in office timings in NIK. However, for the last four years, the government has not issued orders in this regard.

“We have not received any orders from the government to implement the change in timings of schools, colleges, offices, markets,” says Kalaburagi regional commissioner Krishna Bajpai. He says steps are being taken to provide drinking water to all.

“We are deploying police forces to make sure that water released from Narayanpur reservoirs reaches destined places and is utilised only for stated purposes,” he says.

Bajpai says drinking water provisioning for the month of April and May has been thoroughly reviewed. Yadgir and Kalaburagi will get water from Narayanpur reservoir.

Tungabhadra dam will provide water to Koppal, Raichur, Ballari and Vijayanagar. 

Rural Development and Panchayat Raj Minister Priyank Kharge says government is working on long and short-term plans. 

“Instead of Greenwall concept, forest department has been asked to work on multiple Island ecology, where native plants are cultivated in clusters at important locations to improve green cover.”

He says he would convince the government to reintroduce a change in office hours. 

For Sathyanatha Tirtha, a coffee shop owner in Ballari, venturing out between 10 am and 4 pm is next to impossible due to high temperature. “Dehydration, giddiness are recurring among people I know. There is also drinking water scarcity and alternatives such as tender coconut, lemon and fruits are too costly,” he said.