Pakistan’s political divide widens as Imran Khan’s supporters face crackdown

The Pakistani establishment has thwarted an assault on the national capital by Imran Khan’s supporters for a second time in two months. A convoy of protesters, led by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-ruled Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Chief Minister, Ali Amin Gandapur, had tried to reach D-Chowk (an area abutted by key government buildings) in Islamabad a few days before the SCO Heads of Government meeting in mid-October. The government called out the army in both Islamabad and Lahore. It eventually avoided acute embarrassment by reaching a compromise with Gandapur.

He was allowed to enter Islamabad but, instead of holding a rally at D-Chowk, returned to Peshawar after spending some time in the national capital. The recent PTI onslaught came in response to a do-or-die call by Imran Khan from his jail cell, directing his followers to march to Islamabad and stage a sit-in at D-Chowk until his release and the acceptance of other PTI demands. He designated 24th November, a day before the Belarus President’s arrival on an official visit, as the date of commencement for the sit-in.

Although the main convoy of protesters from KP was again led by Ali Amin Gandapur, this time he worked under the directions of Imran Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, who had been released on bail in late October. With Bushra taking a hardline stance, a compromise was ruled out. Thus, the protest leadership rejected the government’s offer to hold the sit-in at a peripheral spot in Islamabad. Convoys of PTI protesters moved relentlessly towards the capital despite a widespread crackdown, severe restrictions on communication facilities and social media, and roadblocks set up by security agencies.

The army was called out again with “shoot at sight” orders. The resulting clashes caused casualties among both the protesters and security personnel.

The protest leaders, along with a number of followers, beat the odds to reach D-Chowk on 26th November. However, they were forced to retreat that night in the face of brutal government force. The government denied that the protesters were fired upon, but PTI, which has called off the protest “for the time being”, has reported loss of life and missing members among its ranks. A TV journalist who dared to challenge the government’s narrative has been arrested on charges of terrorism. Meanwhile, the civil-military leadership has vowed strict action against troublemakers.

Pakistan has stepped back from the brink yet again, but the underlying rancour remains. It is the result of sharp political polarisation and bad blood between Army Chief Asim Munir and Imran Khan, who, as Prime Minister, had shunted Munir out from the post of DG-ISI within months to bring in his favourite, Faiz Hameed. The army engineered massive rigging of the February 2024 election to ensure PTI’s defeat.

Several PTI leaders, including Imran Khan, remain incarcerated. Bushra Bibi may be re-arrested. The party has been denied its reserved seats in the National Assembly despite a Supreme Court judgment in its favour. The government has amended the constitution to appoint a judge acceptable to it as the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and curtailed the Chief Justice’s powers. This rules out significant relief for PTI from the judiciary.

A legal amendment has also extended Asim Munir’s tenure, which was to end in November 2025, to November 2027. This makes a deal between the army and Imran Khan difficult. Unlike Nawaz Sharif, who had accepted exile under similar circumstances, Imran Khan has stood his ground. In any case, his considerable support among the Pakistani diaspora makes him a serious challenge for Munir even from abroad. Under these circumstances, Khan has no option but to continue leveraging his public support, which has held strong against all odds, to gain relief for himself and his party. Crowds mobilised by PTI for its protests are reported to have grown larger with time. Although the main protest convoys originated in KP, there was sizeable participation from Punjab too. Further periodic turmoil cannot be ruled out.

Besides the above, a few more conclusions can be drawn from the recent events. First, the government has betrayed panic, stemming from its lack of political legitimacy, in adopting draconian measures to counter PTI protests. Second, although the government has managed to suppress such protests through brutal force, each round paralyses the administration, damages the economy, and diverts attention from critical issues such as the fragile economy and the high incidence of terror. Third, the fear of the establishment and prolonged incarceration of Imran Khan have caused cracks within PTI. It remains to be seen how this trend unfolds. Fourth, neither Imran Khan nor his opponents are genuinely fighting for democracy; instead, their struggle is to become or remain the ‘laadla’ (chosen one) of the army. Even Nawaz Sharif, the acknowledged champion of civilian supremacy, remains subdued.

Lastly, Imran Khan, himself a Pakhtun, has considerable support in KP, where his party has won two consecutive terms. He had strongly opposed Pakistan Army operations in the tribal areas in the first decade of this century, earning him the nickname “Taliban Khan”. After the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021, he pursued dialogue with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, allowing them to regroup in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Khan prides himself on his pan-Pakistan appeal, especially in Punjab, and has avoided invoking his Pakhtun origins in his current struggle. However, should he continue to face mistreatment, this angle may eventually come into play, further complicating the establishment’s challenges in managing the volatile tribal belt.

(The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan and author of “India’s Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship”)