Over the last five days, the share of Bengaluru’s Covid-19 cases has seen a sharp rise, although officials said this did not, as of now, indicate the onset of the much-speculated second wave.
According to the data, the number of daily cases this month has declined compared to last month; the city’s share rose daily over the last 20 days as compared to January, when the daily average was 52%. This means that in January, the state recorded a total of 19,891 cases (or roughly 641 cases daily on an average, of which 338 were registered in Bengaluru).
In comparison, between February 1 and 20, Karnataka recorded 8,349 cases, of which 231 cases per day were in Bengaluru.
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Rise in cases
However, on February 16, the city’s share saw a dramatic rise. Its share of cases jumped from 54% the day before to 70%. Since then, the daily average share in the city is 62%. At no stage has this share been higher than at the start of the pandemic in March and subsequently in July 2020, which was the worst-hit month for Karnataka in terms of cases and fatalities.
Second wave
Epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu said it was too early to specify if there was a pattern of increase indicating the onset of a second wave.
“Bengaluru is the first place to be hit, but the data shows that so far, there are only a blip of two clusters, but the growth rate is not changing. In fact, the growth rate is decreasing week to week. In fact, the growth rate is about 7% to 8% from now for the entire state.
"This is a positive development because earlier it used to be 13% to 18%,” Dr Babu further added.
Scene in Maha, Kerala
A source specified that the developments in Maharashtra and Kerala in addition to the three clusters officially found in the state so far have nevertheless induced jitters within the government.
“There has been talk of introducing a lockdown, but this is the first reaction of administrators,” the source said.
What BBMP has to say
BBMP Commissioner N Manjunatha Prasad reiterated that the city’s daily case numbers have declined, but could not say why the city’s share is increasing. “Certainly, there are rampant social-distancing violations in the city. We are scaling up surveillance because of the threat posed by the spike in the neighboring states,” he said, specifying that while mask violation registrations had dropped, the Palike was again scaling up enforcement.
The commissioner added that in the next few days they will approach marriage halls and other mass gathering venues to impress upon people the seriousness of the situation.
Epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu added that one reason why the share was potentially going up is because the city’s surveillance machinery was not working as it should. “This is how the three clusters were found. Testing of those initially positive led to the discovery of more cases,” he said.
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