People watch exit poll results on TV sets at a showroom after the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, in Patna
Credit: PTI Photo
With the second and final phase of Bihar assembly elections coming to an end on Tuesday, November 11, the Exit polls have unanimously given incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) the upper hand over the Opposition alliance - Mahagathbandhan. The post poll predictions suggest that Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party is less likely to make any impact as well.
According to the exit poll by Matrize, the Nitish Kumar-led NDA is predicted to ride home with 146-167 seats out of the total 243 seats, while Mahagathbandhan was predicted to secure around 70-90 seats. The JVC survey predicted 135-150 seats for NDA and 88-103 seats for Mahagathbandhan. Similarly, all the other exit polls also predicted a massive NDA victory, with the Poll of polls suggesting that the ruling alliance will secure 148 sides while the Opposition will get 88 seats.
Now, let’s take a look at what the exit polls predicted during the 2020 and 2015 assembly elections and what the actual results were.
2020
2020 was a year that gave the pollsters a rude shock. The predictions were mostly tilted in favour of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. While Times Now C-voter predicted that the opposition would wrest power with 120 seats and NDA securing around 116 seats, India Today-My Axis predicted a landslide win for the Mahagathbandhan with a prediction of winning 150 seats. NDA was predicted to get just about 80 seats.
However, when the results were declared, the NDA edged past its rival in a tightly fought contest, winning 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan’s 110.
Compared to the actual outcome, the exit poll average underestimated the NDA’s tally by 17 seats and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s by 15.
2015:
In 2015, an average of six exit polls that year predicted a razor-thin win for the Mahagathbandhan, projecting 122 seats, just one above the halfway mark, while giving the NDA 114.
The results, however, told a different story. The Mahagathbandhan swept the election with 178 seats, while the NDA managed only 58, once again exposing the exit polls’ inaccuracy.
Of the six surveys, three correctly foresaw a Mahagathbandhan win, two gave the edge to the NDA, and one predicted a hung Assembly. Compared with the final results, most polls had underestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s performance by around 55 seats and overstated the NDA’s by 56.