The UP Assembly poll, where the electorate chose an affable and approachable Akhilesh Yadav over an allegedly inaccessible Mayawati and a persuasive Rahul Gandhi, can be safely surmised as follows: “What Mulayam gained was what Mayawati lost.”
In the 2007 Assembly poll, the BSP had secured 206 seats in a House of 403 with a vote share of 30 per cent while the SP was far behind with 97 seats and a vote share of 25.43 per cent. A five per cent lead in vote share had propelled the BSP by over 100 seats then.
This time, the tides changed in favour of the SP which grabbed 29 per cent of the votes as against BSP’s 26 per cent. That is, while the SP’s vote share increased by around 4 per cent, the BSP’s share fell by around 4 per cent as against the previous election. In terms of seats, SP’s tally increased by 129 seats while BSP’s count dropped by 126 seats.
In the 2002 poll where the SP bagged 143 seats, its vote share stood at 25.37 per cent. Hence, despite seeing a marginal rise in vote share in the 2007 poll by 0.06 per cent, its seat count fell to 97.
The Congress, which had bagged 22 seats last time with a vote share of around 8 per cent, secured more votes this time though its tally rose by six seats only.
In the 2012 Assembly poll, the Congress-RLD alliance polled around 14 per cent vote. According to an estimate, the Congress alone polled around 10 per cent of the votes.
The BJP’s stand, however, did not waver much. The party polled around 15 per cent votes this time as against 14 per cent votes polled in the 2007 election. However, its tally slipped to 47 seats, five less than in 2007.
An analysis of the results also reveals that the Samajwadi Party had gained votes across the state. Despite its staunch opposition to the creation of a separate ‘Harit Pradesh,’ it performed unexpectedly well in that region.
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