The poll victory in four states has come as a major morale booster for the BJP in Karnataka, where the party has set its eyes on what will be a tricky election next year. Analysts feel expecting the same result in Karnataka is speculative at best, considering that different factors are at play here.
The result has offered some lessons — mainly that it is difficult to defeat the largest party in the country, the BJP. It also throws up an encouraging sign for the JD(S) to turn 'kingmaker' again after the next elections, pundits say. With the Congress decimated in most states, the party's Karnataka unit has to be rid of its "suicidal tendencies" to stand a chance against the BJP poll machine.
"The BJP advances with its uniform strategy of hyper-nationalism and fierce Hindutva during elections, of which communal polarisation is a part. Karnataka has reacted well to such politics," political analyst D Umapathy said, citing the recent controversy over hijab. Though the Congress has not hit rock bottom in Karnataka, leaders here have every capability of pulling themselves down, he warned.
The Congress needs to get its act together to remain a formidable force in Karnataka, agreed another analyst Sandeep Shastri. "The state unit alone will not be enough to deliver in the 2023 polls. The party's central leadership will also have a role to play," he said. Thursday's results will be a major morale boost for the BJP but it does not mean a sure shot-victory, as the factors that determine a party's success are different in Karnataka as compared to the north, he noted.
Muzaffar Assadi, chairperson, Department of Political Science at University of Mysore, said the results hinted at a trend where anti-incumbency was not a guaranteed way of removing a party from power. "The results make it clear that it is difficult to defeat the Modi-Shah electoral juggernaut. It will be BJP vs non-BJP parties in the states that are due for polls next," he said.
The JD(S) could also benefit from the dwindling prospects of the Congress by securing a sizeable number of seats. "It could well turn into a kingmaker," Assadi added.
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