Manifestoes are released, promises are done and campaigning is over in Gujarat. The state is all set to cast votes in the first phase of its Assembly elections on Thursday.
Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are challenging Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) two-decade dominance on PM Narendra Modi and HM Amit Shah’s home turf. But with a history of winning six times since 1995, the saffron party is confident of victory.
While Modi-led BJP has gained popularity across the state but 40 of the total 182 Assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribe and Scheduled Caste communities is where the party has not tasted much electoral success. It remains to be dominated by Congress which doesn’t have much presence elsewhere.
Also Read | Why parties are vying for Gujarat's tribal seats
Gujarat has 27 constituencies reserved for STs and 13 for the SCs. Congress’s candidates won in 20 of these 40 constituencies in the last election. In the rest, Congress was right behind BJP in numbers.
Here’s a look at how the SC/ST-dominated regions in Gujarat voted during the 2017 Assembly elections:
A key to victory in this election is the tribal belt in eastern Gujarat. It accounts for 8.1 per cent of the ST population of India.
As per the 2011 census, the tribal population in Gujarat was 89.17 lakh, around 15 per cent of its total population, and was largely spread across 14 eastern districts of the state. The tribal population is concentrated in 48 talukas.
Since 2002, BJP is trying to leave a mark in the Congress-dominated region of eastern Gujarat.
In the 2017 elections, the Congress won 15 of the 27 ST-reserved seats in Gujarat, BJP got eight, the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) of Chhotu Vasava bagged two seats and an independent candidate got one.
This year, BJP is expecting to win 20 seats of the 27 ST-reserved seats. Political experts believe that Congress will continue to remain in power in the tribal-dominated regions of Gujarat while its impact on the rest of the regions will be weak. Some of the votes of the grand-old party will get split with AAP as the party expects to recreate its victory in Delhi and Punjab.
Recently Congress’s campaigning in Gujarat was shadowed by the party’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ but earlier in May, the party had organised a massive rally in the state.
BJP is counting upon ‘Modi magic’ and its ‘Gaurav Yatra’ organised in the tribal belt.
Meanwhile, AAP’s convenor Arvind Kejriwal has visited the state now and then with Punjab CM and AAP leader Bhagwant Mann for outreach and rallies but the impact of it will be known only on December 8.
The elections to the 182-member Gujarat Assembly will be held in two phases, on December 1 and 5. The counting is set to be held on December 8.
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