<p class="title">Oil prices will consolidate at around $40 a barrel this year, with a recovery gaining steam in the fourth quarter and into 2021 on OPEC-led production cuts and as economies limp back from coronavirus lockdowns, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The survey of 45 analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $40.41 a barrel in 2020, up from a forecast of $37.58 in a similar survey last month.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The global benchmark has averaged $42.10 so far this year. It was trading just below $42 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $39.19.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The poll estimates the price of WTI would average $36.10 a barrel this year, up from a forecast of $32.78 in the May survey.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Of the 37 contributors who participated in both the May and June polls, 26 raised their 2020 Brent forecasts.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"The pace of this recovery will remain modest in the third quarter," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.</p>.<p class="bodytext">But it will "accelerate in Q4 under the combined effect of voluntary output restraints by OPEC+ producers, market-driven production declines and a sequential recovery in demand with the reinstatement of economic activity reinforced by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures."</p>.<p class="bodytext">The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, under a new agreement have been cutting output since May by a record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to support prices and demand hit by the pandemic.</p>.<p class="bodytext">OPEC+ compliance with the cuts in May was 87%.</p>.<p class="bodytext">However, analysts warned that a global rise in Covid-19 cases, which topped 10.15 million as of June 29, could potentially spark further restrictions and slow any economic recovery, and in turn, demand.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Analysts expect global demand to contract by between about 6.5 million-8.7 million bpd this year, compared with last month's prediction of 6.4 million-10 million bpd.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"End-2020 demand will likely fall well short of end-2019 levels given that people will take some time to return to their old habits after restrictions are lifted," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.</p>
<p class="title">Oil prices will consolidate at around $40 a barrel this year, with a recovery gaining steam in the fourth quarter and into 2021 on OPEC-led production cuts and as economies limp back from coronavirus lockdowns, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The survey of 45 analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $40.41 a barrel in 2020, up from a forecast of $37.58 in a similar survey last month.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The global benchmark has averaged $42.10 so far this year. It was trading just below $42 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $39.19.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The poll estimates the price of WTI would average $36.10 a barrel this year, up from a forecast of $32.78 in the May survey.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Of the 37 contributors who participated in both the May and June polls, 26 raised their 2020 Brent forecasts.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"The pace of this recovery will remain modest in the third quarter," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.</p>.<p class="bodytext">But it will "accelerate in Q4 under the combined effect of voluntary output restraints by OPEC+ producers, market-driven production declines and a sequential recovery in demand with the reinstatement of economic activity reinforced by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures."</p>.<p class="bodytext">The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, under a new agreement have been cutting output since May by a record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to support prices and demand hit by the pandemic.</p>.<p class="bodytext">OPEC+ compliance with the cuts in May was 87%.</p>.<p class="bodytext">However, analysts warned that a global rise in Covid-19 cases, which topped 10.15 million as of June 29, could potentially spark further restrictions and slow any economic recovery, and in turn, demand.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Analysts expect global demand to contract by between about 6.5 million-8.7 million bpd this year, compared with last month's prediction of 6.4 million-10 million bpd.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"End-2020 demand will likely fall well short of end-2019 levels given that people will take some time to return to their old habits after restrictions are lifted," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.</p>