Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2024 year-end target for the SP 500 Index to 5,600 from 5,200, citing strong earnings growth by five mega-cap US tech stocks and a higher fair value price-to-earnings ratio multiple.

Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms have collectively surged by 45 per cent and now comprise 25 per cent of the SP 500 equity cap, the brokerage wrote in a note after markets closed on Friday.

"The drivers of the rally include upward revisions to consensus 2024 earnings estimates for these same tech companies, and valuation expansion stemming from increased investor enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI)," it added.

The upgraded target reflects an upside of about 3.1 per cent to the index's last close of 5,431.60.

The brokerage expects roughly unchanged real yields by the year-end and strong earnings growth to support a 15x P/E for the equal-weight SP 500 Index.

"The (US) election remains a key risk to the SP 500 level and falls between our 3-month and year-end forecast horizons," said analysts at Goldman Sachs.

The United States will hold its next presidential election in November this year.

The brokerage added that index volatility increases before the election during election years, but following the election, volatility typically subsides and the SP 500 index rebounds to an even higher level.

Meanwhile, Evercore ISI, in a note on Sunday, had raised its year-end target for the benchmark index to 6,000 from 4,750, expecting earnings to grow 8 per cent this year on the back of strong potential from the AI "revolution".

The brokerage upgraded the information technology sector to "outperform" from "in line", saying the sector benefits from structural demographic trends and persistence of AI frenzy.