Venezuela crisis unlikely to have any material impact on Indian economy

New Delhi: The crisis in Venezuela is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian economy as India’s trade with the Latin American country is low, analysts said.

“For India, the Venezuelan disturbance is unlikely to have any material economic or energy impact,” Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava said in a note.

Although India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, and Indian firms such as ONGC Videsh held upstream stakes in the Orinoco belt, bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and scale back commercial activity to avoid secondary sanctions.

There has been a declining trend in India-Venezuela bilateral trade. India’s total imports from Venezuela dipped to $364.5 million in 2024-25, which was nearly half of the previous year. Out of this, crude oil accounted for $255.3 million. India’s exports to Venezuela were modest at $95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million.

“Given the low trade volumes, existing sanction constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security,” Srivastava said.

In a large-scale military operation, the US has captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.

While the US action has led to a political crisis, it has not resulted in any major damage to Venezuela’s core oil infrastructure.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven petroleum reserves. It holds about 18% of the world’s oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16%), Russia (about 5-6%), or the US (around 4%). Venezuela alone has more crude oil reserves than the US and Russia combined.