Bengaluru's daily Covid case load drops by 78%

A waning daily caseload over the last week has given hope that the city is moving towards the end of the third Covid wave, but officials cautioned against lowering guard.

Bengaluru reported 6,685 new cases on Tuesday, a 78% decline since the city’s peak numbers of 30,540 cases reported on January 20. Tuesday’s relatively low numbers were found amid 80,210 tests, which indicates a test positivity rate of 8.3%. This is significantly lower than the city’s average test positivity rate of 18.35%, recorded in the previous seven days.

Dr Thrilok Chandra, Special Commissioner (Health), Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP), confirmed that there has been a steady decline in the number of new cases , but warned that cases could rise again if people neglect to follow Covid-appropriate behavior.

“All it takes for cases to increase again is critical mass. The public, therefore, cannot be lax in taking precautions,” he said.

He noted that the low numbers were also a result of the more conscientious behavior of the public despite there being no lockdown.

Google mobility data for Bengaluru Urban on January 28 shows a 23% decline in the use of public transport, with retail and recreation being down 30% while parks are down by 36%.

Dr C N Manjunath, a member of the State Covid-19 Task Force, noted that the trajectory of the current wave has been following the prediction that a rapid rise in December is now giving way to a rapid fall in cases. “This is the same pattern observed in South Africa, Mumbai, and Delhi,” he said.

However, he cautioned that being at the tail end of the wave in the city means that the death rate will slightly go up.

“This is because it takes two to four weeks for a build-up in cases to increase the case fatality rate,” he said, adding that people with comorbidities must continue to take precautions as they have comprised the majority of
fatalities.

CCCs on standby

Meanwhile, the declining cases will prompt municipal authorities to refocus their strategy. Dr Chandra specified that the 18 original Covid Care Centres (CCC) operational in the city have already been pared down to nine and will be reduced further.

“Barring three CCCs (at HAL, Karnataka State Power Corporation Ltd in Yelahanka, and the Government Ayurvedic College), all others will be placed on standby mode. This means that manpower will be removed but the equipment will remain in place to be brought back online in the event of an emergency,” he said.

He added that the human resources of these CCCs will be redirected to other tasks such as vaccinations.

Another focus, according to the special commissioner, was to wrap up vaccination of 19% of population who are yet to get the second dose. “The plan is to finish up these pending vaccinations in the next 10 days,” he said.

Dr Manjunath also called on hospitals to allocate at least 50% of their beds for non-Covid medical services. “Many elective surgeries have been disrupted during the third wave,” he said.

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