<p>North Korea’s nuclear programmes represent the biggest achievements he can show to his people. <br /><br /></p>.<p>By defying warnings not only from the United States but also from its ally China to detonate a nuclear device on Tuesday, Kim Jong Un was attempting to increase his status both as a worthy leader among his people in North Korea and as a foe to be taken seriously among the nations his government considers its enemies. <br /><br />Kim – still believed to be in his late 20s when he took over a highly militaristic regime following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in late 2011 – has recently emphasised a better living standard for his long-suffering people, generating hopes that he might lead his country out of its isolation. But at the same time, he has also shown himself to be his father’s son, launching a long-range rocket in December and threatening more missile and nuclear tests in the face of international sanctions.<br /><br />With the nuclear test on Tuesday, Kim appeared to have chosen the defiant path for now, and analysts said there was good reasons for that.<br /><br />“Now is a particularly opportune time for Kim Jong Un to reset his relations with the powers in the region,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a North Korea specialist at Tufts University in Massachusetts. <br /><br />Latest provocation<br /><br />North Korea’s latest provocation came at a time when none of the governments in the region wanted to deal with a foreign policy crisis. All the major powers in the North Pacific – including Japan, Russia and China – have recently undergone a leadership transition. South Korea is also in the middle of power transition, with President-elect Park Geun-hye scheduled to be sworn in on February 25.<br /><br />North Korea’s attempts to unsettle the region started in December, when the government successfully launched a long-range rocket, putting a satellite into orbit, the first for the impoverished country. That prompted the United Nations to tighten sanctions against North Korea and even made China, long considered its sole major protector at the UN Security Council, support the sanctions and chide the regime in Pyongyang. But the satellite success appeared to also have emboldened Kim.<br /><br />“He seems intent on pushing what he may see as his advantage, both domestically and internationally,” said Jonathan D Pollack, a North Korea expert at the Brookings Institution. “Regardless of warnings from China, it is clear that Kim is not paying serious heed to more cautionary voices. This is someone who seems intent on conveying that he is running the show.”<br /><br />Young and often dismissed in the West as “inexperienced” and “untested,” Kim has tried to demonstrate – through a recent series of harsh pronouncements from his government – that he was not someone who felt cowered by the prospects of more sanctions, which would further isolate his regime and impede whatever efforts he might have planned to revive his country’s moribund economy. North Korea even recently harshly criticised Beijing, vowing not to kowtow to any “big power,” an important stance for Kim to take as he tried to consolidate his grip on power among the country’s highly nationalistic military and other power elites.<br /><br />North Korea’s nuclear and rocket programmes represent the biggest achievements Kim can show to his people to prove his leadership and to legitimise the dynastic rule of his family ahead of the February 16 birthday of his late father, a major North Korean holiday.<br />North Korea claimed on Tuesday that the nuclear test was a success involving “a miniaturised and lightweight atomic bomb.” Governments in the region could not immediately verify that claim. The claim, even if not confirmed immediately, was likely to incite significant anxiety among regional governments and add urgency to diplomatic efforts to contain the North’s nuclear and missile programmes.<br /><br />North Korea’s nuclear test – especially if it used enriched uranium, rather than its limited stock pile of plutonium – raises serious implications, turning the country into a far more urgent proliferation threat to the new Obama administration. It also complicates the policies of other regional powers. The test makes it difficult for President-elect Park of South Korea to carry out new policies toward the North.<br /><br />The attitudes in the Chinese leadership remain critical, analysts said. Despite its unhappiness with North Korea’s nuclear pursuit, China has long refused to cut off its oil and other economic lifeline to North Korea for fear of another concern: instability in the North.<br /><br />“Will a new Chinese leadership be inclined to sustain the accommodation pursued by its predecessors, or will North Korea’s behaviour so undermine Chinese interests that Beijing undertakes a reassessment of its underlying strategy?” said Pollack, who heads Brookings’ John L Thornton China Centre. “We have reached a delicate and potentially very dangerous moment in Korea.”<br /><br /><br /></p>
<p>North Korea’s nuclear programmes represent the biggest achievements he can show to his people. <br /><br /></p>.<p>By defying warnings not only from the United States but also from its ally China to detonate a nuclear device on Tuesday, Kim Jong Un was attempting to increase his status both as a worthy leader among his people in North Korea and as a foe to be taken seriously among the nations his government considers its enemies. <br /><br />Kim – still believed to be in his late 20s when he took over a highly militaristic regime following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in late 2011 – has recently emphasised a better living standard for his long-suffering people, generating hopes that he might lead his country out of its isolation. But at the same time, he has also shown himself to be his father’s son, launching a long-range rocket in December and threatening more missile and nuclear tests in the face of international sanctions.<br /><br />With the nuclear test on Tuesday, Kim appeared to have chosen the defiant path for now, and analysts said there was good reasons for that.<br /><br />“Now is a particularly opportune time for Kim Jong Un to reset his relations with the powers in the region,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a North Korea specialist at Tufts University in Massachusetts. <br /><br />Latest provocation<br /><br />North Korea’s latest provocation came at a time when none of the governments in the region wanted to deal with a foreign policy crisis. All the major powers in the North Pacific – including Japan, Russia and China – have recently undergone a leadership transition. South Korea is also in the middle of power transition, with President-elect Park Geun-hye scheduled to be sworn in on February 25.<br /><br />North Korea’s attempts to unsettle the region started in December, when the government successfully launched a long-range rocket, putting a satellite into orbit, the first for the impoverished country. That prompted the United Nations to tighten sanctions against North Korea and even made China, long considered its sole major protector at the UN Security Council, support the sanctions and chide the regime in Pyongyang. But the satellite success appeared to also have emboldened Kim.<br /><br />“He seems intent on pushing what he may see as his advantage, both domestically and internationally,” said Jonathan D Pollack, a North Korea expert at the Brookings Institution. “Regardless of warnings from China, it is clear that Kim is not paying serious heed to more cautionary voices. This is someone who seems intent on conveying that he is running the show.”<br /><br />Young and often dismissed in the West as “inexperienced” and “untested,” Kim has tried to demonstrate – through a recent series of harsh pronouncements from his government – that he was not someone who felt cowered by the prospects of more sanctions, which would further isolate his regime and impede whatever efforts he might have planned to revive his country’s moribund economy. North Korea even recently harshly criticised Beijing, vowing not to kowtow to any “big power,” an important stance for Kim to take as he tried to consolidate his grip on power among the country’s highly nationalistic military and other power elites.<br /><br />North Korea’s nuclear and rocket programmes represent the biggest achievements Kim can show to his people to prove his leadership and to legitimise the dynastic rule of his family ahead of the February 16 birthday of his late father, a major North Korean holiday.<br />North Korea claimed on Tuesday that the nuclear test was a success involving “a miniaturised and lightweight atomic bomb.” Governments in the region could not immediately verify that claim. The claim, even if not confirmed immediately, was likely to incite significant anxiety among regional governments and add urgency to diplomatic efforts to contain the North’s nuclear and missile programmes.<br /><br />North Korea’s nuclear test – especially if it used enriched uranium, rather than its limited stock pile of plutonium – raises serious implications, turning the country into a far more urgent proliferation threat to the new Obama administration. It also complicates the policies of other regional powers. The test makes it difficult for President-elect Park of South Korea to carry out new policies toward the North.<br /><br />The attitudes in the Chinese leadership remain critical, analysts said. Despite its unhappiness with North Korea’s nuclear pursuit, China has long refused to cut off its oil and other economic lifeline to North Korea for fear of another concern: instability in the North.<br /><br />“Will a new Chinese leadership be inclined to sustain the accommodation pursued by its predecessors, or will North Korea’s behaviour so undermine Chinese interests that Beijing undertakes a reassessment of its underlying strategy?” said Pollack, who heads Brookings’ John L Thornton China Centre. “We have reached a delicate and potentially very dangerous moment in Korea.”<br /><br /><br /></p>
