JOIN USWith the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due for 2017, the Samajwadi Party under the leadership of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and the Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati have already kick-started preparations, while the BJP and Congress are yet to wake up.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) seems to be keeping abreast with the changing scenario of public support. Akhilesh is putting all efforts in revitalising the disillusioned vote bank. In the past few days, the SP geared up steps on multiple fronts.
The work on Lucknow-Agra Expressway is underway. Akhilesh’s government is planning to develop dairy industry, open flower business centres etc near the expressway.
Simultaneously, work on the Metro service in major cities is also progressing successfully.
Notwithstanding the deplorable state of functioning of the government hospitals in the state, the SP government is actively strengthening Medanta chain of corporate super-speciality hospitals.
The SP government is leaving no stone unturned to appease the urban lower-middle class gentry by initiating low-cost housing projects like the “Samajwadi Awaas Yojana”.
Though these efforts are credible, the party needs to strengthen its efforts to motivate the rural vote bank. News is in the air that for focused election management, Akhilesh and Shivpal Yadav have even initiated talks with internationally renowned institutions like Auckland Briggs.
Maintaining law & order, and communal harmony are Akhilesh’s biggest problems. There is every likelihood that with elections approaching, political parties and communal forces with vested interests may rouse trouble.
Akhilesh will also have to aptly answer to the potential threat from his own cadres with criminal background seated deep in his party’s structural framework. With his recent evaluation test of his Cabinet ministers in the context of good governance and capacity, Akhilesh has taken a step forward in this front, but there is still a long way to go.
However, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, when most political analysts had almost written off the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), it gradually started regaining lost ground, as is evident from the recent Zilla and regional Panchayat ward (member) elections.
The vote base of the BSP are the Dalits, and this vote bank fragmented after 2007 due to the negative byproduct of “Sarvajana” (inclusive) politics of Mayawati. This impression played a major role in disappointing a section of the Dalits, leading them to forsake the party and move towards the SP.
At present, the Dalit community is not satisfied with the BJP and feels that the party has not fulfilled their expectations related to their development and has not provided them with adequate employment opportunities.
Also, the plans and policies of the SP government has instilled a feeling of insecurity among the Dalits. The callous attitude of the ruling SP towards them, coupled with the total decline in the law & order situation are reasons enough for the realignment of the Dalits towards the BSP.
The most important reason is the confiscation of land owned by the Dalits by realtors. The SP government’s decision to remove the fixed reservation in jobs designed for employment promotion among Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) is also instilling insecurity among the Dalits.
The SP government had also taken action for the demotion of the promoted SC/ST officials in the state. The SP government’s decision of removing restriction in the Uttar Pradesh Zamindari Abolition and Land Reforms Act, 1950, has added fire to Dalit resentment. This insecurity is gradually transforming into silent support for Mayawati and realignment towards the BSP as they have once again understood that it is only Mayawati who can fight for their rights.
Fulfilling aspirations
Another social group which Mayawati is targeting for the coming election is the urban middle class. Mayawati has started working towards the fulfillment of the aspirations of this section of people, as revealed by her plans and strategies.
Taking cognisance of the changing aspirations of the people of the state, Mayawati transformed her political strategy from identity politics to politics of governance. She announced that the BSP would focus on governance rather than on construction of parks and statues.
Through our fieldwork in western Uttar Pradesh, we ascertained that the arithmetic that is emerging is oriented towards a combination of Muslim, Dalit and Jat vote bank in favour of the BSP. Given her base of Dalit votes in combination with the Muslim vote might lead to some consolidation of votes in favour of the BSP.
Though the BSP has clearly refused forming any grand alliance for the Assembly polls, Mayawati is working on strategies to form a grand alliance of castes and communities by providing them caste-based representation in allotment of tickets.
The BSP has already finalised its candidates well in advance keeping some changes based on the politics of local and social equations. Booth committees, local coordinators and other structural reorganisations of local cadres have already been done.
On the other hand, the SP camp seems eager to develop a grand alliance of political parties. Talks have already been initiated to explore the possibilities of such an alliance. Shiv Pal Yadav is heading the SP’s efforts for creation of a grand alliance, and with an year to go for the polls, we will have to see what happens next.
(The writer is professor, Centre for the study of Discrimination and Exclusion, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)