Exit poll predictions: Mixed results for TMC in West Bengal; DMK likely to win Tamil Nadu

Of the five exit polls, three went to Trinamool Congress, while BJP was ahead in two

Exit polls on Thursday were divided on the outcome of West Bengal Assembly elections with four out of seven giving Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress an edge while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is predicted to create history by bucking the trend of ruling coalitions losing elections in Kerala.

Assam is likely to go the BJP way once again though the Congress-led coalition appears to be closing the gap, while the DMK's MK Stalin in all probability will take over as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister comfortably overcoming the challenge of the ruling AIADMK, which joined hands with the BJP to form a coalition. A survey also predicted the AIADMK-BJP combine to trounce the Congress-led coalition in Puducherry.

The exit polls did not provide any positive signs for the Congress as it is unlikely to get a shot in power in Kerala, where it had pinned all its hope, as well as Assam where it gave a spirited fight in the company of the AIDUF, its new coalition partner.

For the BJP, the Assam results may not give too much of enthusiasm with the Congress regaining lost ground while it will be waiting with its fingers crossed on Bengal.

An analysis of seven exit polls for West Bengal showed that the Trinamool Congress was ahead in four of them while the BJP was given an edge in three.

All polls predicted that the Trinamool, which won 211 seats last time, will be losing around 50-60 seats from the 2016 polls and the BJP with just three MLAs in the last polls would be gaining more than 100 seats, especially at the expense of the Congress and the Left. The Congress won 44 seats and the Left around 30 in the last polls.

In the 294-member Assembly, Today's Chanakya gave the Trinamool Congress the highest at 180 (+/-11) while the BJP was predicted to bag 108 (+/-11). The Congress-Left combine could get a dismal four (+/-4) despite fighting together.

The polls that gave Trinamool Congress the edge were India Ahead-P Marq (152-172), ABP-CVoter (152-164) and ETG Research (164-176) besides Today's Chanakya.

The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted the possibility of a hung assembly with a narrow edge for the BJP (134-160) while giving 130-156 for the Trinamool Congress. The Congress-Left could get a maximum of two seats.

The CNX exit polls also pointed to the possibility of a hung assembly with the Trinamool Congress predicted to get 128-138. If the Congress and the Left with 11-21 seats decide to support Trinamool, it could cross the 148-mark even as the BJP was predicted to get 138-148 seats.

The India Ahead-PMarq polls gave the Trinamool Congress 152-172 seats while the BJP was predicted to win 112-132 seats. The Congress-Left coalition could win 10-20 seats.

For the BJP, the prediction was 109-121 seats by P Marq and 105-111 by ETG Research while the Congress-Left was poised to win 14-25 and 10-15 seats respectively.

The surveys which gave the BJP the edge in West Bengal was Jan ki Baat -- 162-185 -- which gave a clear majority for the BJP.

If the exit polls turn out to be right, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF will return to power and form the government in Kerala, bucking the state's age-old trend of handing power to the Opposition. While India Ahead PMarq (72-79) and CNX exit polls (72-80) gave a slender majority to the LDF, the India Today-Axis My India poll gave the LDF a whopping 104-120 seats in the 140 member Assembly.

Today's Chanakya also predicted 102 seats (+/-9) for the LDF against UDF's 35 (+/-9)/

The Congress-led UDF may return disappointed despite former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi extensively campaigning in Kerala. The surveys predicted 60-66 (PMarq), 58-64 (CNX), 20-36 (Axis My India) seats. The BJP is predicted to win one or two seats.

It is a clean sweep for the DMK coalition, which is predicted to win between 160 and 195 seats in various polls while AIADMK-BJP coalition was predicted to win between 40 and 70 seats.

This was the first election in Tamil Nadu with the absence of towering leaders J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi and provides an opportunity for Stalin to cement his place in state politics. This will also mark the return of the DMK to power after a 10-year gap as the AIADMK managed to retain power in 2016 going against the trend in the state.

Though there was good news for the Congress in Assam, the exit polls showed that it could not breach the majority mark. However, the party appeared to be coming close to it. Various polls showed that the BJP might win between 58 and 85 seats while the Congress-led coalition could win 40 to 60 seats. None of the polls showed the Congress crossing the halfway mark.