Explained | Musk faces a daunting path in challenging US two-party system

Washington: Building a new US political party from scratch is a daunting task, even for the world's richest man. But that is what Elon Musk, the billionaire behind Tesla and SpaceX, said he plans to do in the wake of his falling out with President Donald Trump. Musk this weekend announced the birth of the “America Party” – dedicated, he said, to defeating Republicans who backed Trump’s massive tax-cut and spending bill.

Musk described his new party on his platform X as tech-centric, budget-conscious, pro-energy and centrist, with the goal of drawing both disaffected Democrats and Republicans. Musk has criticized the tax-cut bill, which is forecast to add about $3.4 trillion to the United States' debt.

Breaking the two-party system's grip on U.S. federal elections would take tremendous resources and a long-term commitment, political experts say. Similar attempts have failed, underscoring how difficult it is to gain a foothold in a country where elections are organized on a state-by-state level.

"There are just very, very significant barriers to the creation of a viable third party," said David A. Hopkins, a Boston College political science professor. He said challenges include building party infrastructure, organizing volunteers and qualifying for the ballot.

David Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Florida who left the party over Trump, said Musk can provide what has long been required for such a push: money.

"What the independent space has been lacking has been resources," Jolly said. "It's more than filing with the Federal Election Commission. It's really starting 50 state parties. You’re talking about $100 million just to enter the space with real serious intent."

Jolly considered returning to politics as an independent, but he concluded that staying within the two-party system would be a more effective way to reach unhappy voters. He is now running for governor of Florida as a Democrat.

In 2016, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, another billionaire, made a similar conclusion, rejecting the idea of running for president as an independent, saying that such a candidate would have "no chance of winning." Jolly estimated it would take Musk 10 years and perhaps $1 billion to build a viable national party – and said Musk’s recent history with his Department of Government Efficiency suggests the billionaire may not be in it for the long haul.

Musk left DOGE after just a few months in Trump’s administration, having delivered little of the savings he promised.

"What we have seen is an Elon Musk who is not disciplined ... enough to change American politics," Jolly said. Musk's office did not respond to a request for comment. Tesla shares closed nearly 7% lower on Monday as Musk reignited investors' worries about his focus on the company.

Playing spoiler

Musk could have chosen a more traditional path, using his political action committee to back Republican challengers to incumbents in the party primaries ahead of next year's midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress. He was the largest donor in the 2024 U.S. campaign cycle, making nearly $300 million in contributions, mostly focused on helping Trump return to the White House. Not all his political efforts have paid off. He poured millions of dollars into a Wisconsin Supreme Court election in April, only to see his preferred candidate fail. His efforts to convince Republicans in the US Congress not to pass Trump's tax bill also fell flat.

It is unclear how effective he would be in backing independents in a handful of competitive US House of Representatives races.

As it is, the roughly three-dozen races deemed competitive by nonpartisan analysts are often already swamped with cash from political parties and outside fundraisers, and the candidates themselves typically are ideologically more moderate - which would make it harder for Musk’s candidates to differentiate themselves.

Historically, congressional candidates outside the two parties have struggled to overcome disadvantages in local efforts to organize and get out the vote. More often, independents have served as spoilers – siphoning away votes from either the Democrat or Republican.

In the 2024 election for a House seat in Ohio, independent candidate Dennis Kucinich, a former Democratic congressman, captured more than 12% of the general election vote. The Republican, Max Miller, won by 15 percentage points.

Trump mocked Musk’s efforts on Sunday. "Third parties have never worked, so he can have fun with it, but I think it's ridiculous," he told reporters.

Complicating Musk’s plans is that many voters dislike him. Any role he plays in an election is sure to become part of the debate.

Musk is viewed less favorably than Trump by the American public at large - just 36% of respondents to a June Reuters/Ipsos poll had a favorable view of Musk compared with 42% who viewed Trump favorably, while 59% of respondents have an unfavorable view of him compared with 55% who viewed Trump unfavorably.

But his biggest liability may be that he is trying to challenge Trump politically while relying on support from Trump's own voters. Musk enjoyed his strongest level of support - 78 per cent favorability - among people who voted for Trump in November.

“Musk himself is not very popular, and his appeal has a huge overlap with the existing Republican coalition,” said Hans Noel, a political scientist at Georgetown University. “There really isn’t an unrepresented movement that he’s speaking for ... he’s unlikely to elect many America Party candidates."