Women, upper castes propelled BJP to UP triumph, shows survey

Women voters and caste consolidation of Brahmins, Rajputs and upper castes helped the BJP sail through in Uttar Pradesh, where the party stormed back to power for a second consecutive term.

A post-poll survey of the recent elections released by polling agency Axis MyIndia states that the biggest difference between the BJP and the SP is in the number of female voters.

Women voted in huge numbers for the BJP, according to data. If one takes into account the number of male voters who voted for the two main parties, the difference is only 4 per cent. This incredibly widens to 16 per cent when it comes to women voters.

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A closer look at the voter percentage reveals that men constituted 44 per cent of the voters of the BJP and its allies, while 48 per cent were women. Among the voters of the SP-RLD combine, 40 per cent were male and 32 per cent were female.

The survey was conducted among a sample size of 1,21,034 people in interviews with people in all the 403 constituencies.

Pradeep Gupta of Axis MyIndia said the reason behind this is the delivery of welfare schemes.

“Women were at the forefront of beneficiaries, and gas, toilet and most importantly the housing schemes were important to them. These schemes were minimising their dependency on male members,” Gupta said.

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The elections also saw a realignment of caste consolidation, with Muslims and Yadavs standing firmly behind the SP and the Rajputs and upper castes behind the BJP. An overwhelming majority of Muslims (83 per cent) and Yadavs (86 per cent) voted for the Samajwadi Party. The Jat vote was split in half among the SP and the BJP, with the BJP gaining 47 per cent of their votes and the SP, 44 per cent.

Over 71 per cent of the Rajputs voted for the BJP and the party garnered the support of 70 per cent of upper caste votes.

What is worth noting is the transfer of upper caste votes from the Congress to the BJP. “The upper castes who stood by the Congress traditionally left the party for the BJP. Only 2 per cent of upper caste votes came to the Congress,” Gupta said.

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In a similar fashion, the BSP's loss was the BJP’s gain. While the BSP managed to maintain its Jatav base, with 62 per cent of them voting for the party, the non-Jatav SC vote bank went to the BJP, with 51 per cent voting for them. Only 16 per cent of non-Jatav voters voted for the BSP.

“A closer look has revealed that the Muslim SC votes that came to the BSP last time went back to the SP this time. In addition, the non-Jatav votes went to the BJP,” Gupta said.

The survey also revealed that 45 per cent of the rural votes went to the BJP and the party managed to pocket 49 per cent of the urban voters. For the SP, the figure was 36 per cent and 35 per cent respectively.

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