Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | The math behind NDA, I.N.D.I.A. alliances; RJD to contest most seats as allies jockey for ‘A-grade’ constituencies

New Delhi: With the RJD officially releasing its list of candidates, the contours of the seat-sharing arrangement among all major constituents in Bihar have been drawn. Barring a few constituencies that may see a ‘friendly contest’, Lalu Yadav's party is set to contest the maximum number of seats in the November elections.

The brinkmanship that marred negotiations in the I.N.D.I.A bloc is symptomatic of electoral politics in a fragmented polity, where allies jostle and compete to maximise their numbers, within the alliance, and subsequently in the House. The more you contest, the more you are likely to win.

But that's easier said than done. A party's final tally in an election does not depend solely on the number of candidates who entered the fray under its symbol. What also matters is the ‘grade’ of seats allocated. Yes, like school grades, parties grade the seats based on the probability of a favourable outcome.  An ‘A’ grade seat for the BJP could draw a ‘C’ grade in the RJD list, and vice versa. Everyone wants to contest as many winning seats as possible.

Still, the allocation of an ‘A’ category seat is no guarantee of victory. What matters is a favourable average of the variables at play — a sort of Cumulative Grade Point Average or CGPA, where the demography of a constituency, caste, support base among dominant communities, and a candidate's loyalty to the party come into play.

Present and future political challenges, too, are taken into consideration. Pappu Yadav, an independent MP from Purnia, has overtly and covertly been aligned with the Congress. Being a strong local Yadav satrap, Lalu's RJD has been averse to accommodating him in the I.N.D.I.A bloc.

In the NDA allies, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) is a more conducive ally for the BJP to deal with than a strong Nitish Kumar. The BJP has no qualms about allocating 29 seats to Paswan’s party while it ensured parity with the JD(U) in seat-sharing, though all these years, it has not balked at conceding the leadership position and chief ministership to Nitish.

Another critical consideration in seat allocation to minor partners is their ability to win. No one wants to waste seats. When parties complement one another, there are ways to overcome differences — like fielding an ally’s strong candidate under your symbol. In 2024, the Congress won the symbolically significant Allahabad LS seat by fielding Samajwadi Party’s Ujjwal Raman Singh.

In fact, the performance of smaller parties in a coalition at times is the difference between victory and defeat.

In Jharkhand, which was part of Bihar till 2000, the I.N.D.I.A bloc could win two consecutive elections because the Congress complemented the JMM by winning its share of urban seats, especially in urban centres, thereby substantially reducing the BJP’s tally.

In 2020, the Congress proved to be a drag on the I.N.D.I.A bloc. Of the 70 seats allocated, the party could win only 19. As compared to others like CPI(ML), which won 12 out of 19, the Congress’ performance gave the NDA just enough edge to breach the tape by a slim margin.

It is not surprising that the RJD is reluctant to cut too much slack for the Congress. But Lalu also knows the perils of letting the Congress completely out of the alliance. He and Ram Vilas Paswan tried doing that in the 2009 LS polls and ended with just four seats.

He’s opted for plan B: a friendly contest in a dozen seats. In a free-for-all in at least nine seats, "may the best candidate win", seems to be the motto as I.N.D.I.A bloc partners face off.

In the NDA, the BJP has bet big on Chirag Paswan's party by allocating it 29 seats while reducing allocation for Nitish's JD(U). The alliances’ final tally hinges critically on the performance of Chirag's party.