Lok Sabha elections 2024: Congress faces uphill task in unseating entrenched BJP in Bangalore North

“I don’t know much about the elections. But I have seen the videos on my son’s mobile phone. The Congress has given guarantees. But the BJP has done well in building Ayodhya temple and bringing our people from enemy territories. I like Modi,” said Gauramma, who runs a vegetable shop on P Shankar Road in Jnanabharathi Layout.

“We are worried about rising prices of LPG and petrol. Everyone knows why the Centre cut the price of (LPG) cylinders by Rs 100 after increasing from Rs 450 to over Rs 1,000. The Congress’ schemes have helped my family. I will vote for the party,” said Krishnamurthy G P, while sipping tea at a roadside shop near Gollahalli cross in Hemmigepura.

In Bangalore North, a constituency spread over the urban expanse of Bengaluru and comprising 32.14 lakh electors, the national narratives have become as important as the local issues of broken roads and lack of drinking water, with social media playing a major role in drumming up support for parties.

Starting from the BJP’s decision to field Shobha Karandlaje and the early indications of rebellion by outgoing MP D V Sadananda Gowda to the open rebellion of the party’s Yeshwantpur MLA S T Somashekhar, the constituency has received much attention. The Congress’ non-stop effort to bring leaders and workers from rival parties, including former MLA from Dasarahalli, JD(S)’ R Manjunatha, have added new angles to the electoral drama. The BJP has responded by bringing into the party Pulakeshinagar’s Congress leader and former MLA Akhanda Srinivasamurthy.

The Congress has fielded M V Rajeev Gowda, a soft-spoken candidate and intellectual oeuvre who has begun tracing his political roots by invoking the contributions of his father and former Assembly speaker M V Venkatappa and uncle M V Krishnappa.

Congress campaign

During his meetings with supporters, Gowda has been speaking about the “damage caused by the BJP to the economy and society,” while promising solutions to eternal issues dogging Bengaluru: traffic congestion, bad roads and poor public transport.

A look at the numbers of 2014 and 2019 polls, however, shows that he has an uphill task.

Non-stop from 2004

Ever since H T Sangliana’s victory in 2004, the BJP has made inroads into the constituency. The victory margin had widened from the initial 30,000 to 2.29 lakh in 2014.

“In 2019, the Congress and JD(S) joined forces and fielded Krishna Byre Gowda, a minister, who was MLA from Byatarayanapura. There were reports that Sadananda Gowda may lose. But we won with a margin of 1.47 lakh because of our strong cadre base built over the last 25 years. Unlike Congress workers, our work is not limited to the time of elections,” said S Harish, BJP’s Bangalore North district president.

Interestingly, though seven of the eight segments had Congress-JD(S) MLAs in 2019, Byre Gowda managed to get the lead (63,762 votes) only in Pulakeshinagar. The BJP outpaced him by 17,647 votes even in Byatarayanapura. Though Byre Gowda narrowed the margin elsewhere, in Yeshwantpur, it got wider. Come 2024, the Congress is now reduced to three segments and the JD(S) has joined the NDA.

Whirlwind tour

Nevertheless, Shobha has not left any stone unturned. She has been on a whirlwind tour of the eight Assembly segments with a special attention to Yeshwantpur – the Assembly segment she won in 2008 – Dasarahalli and KR Puram.

Pushing forward ‘Modi’s guarantee,’ the union minister has been bashing the state government’s “coffers-draining” programmes. The row over the remark on Rameshwaram cafe blast suspect being from Tamil Nadu has not distracted her as she pushes Modi as the best option to ensure “national security”.

Co-ordination meetings

Shobha has not taken Somashekhar’s rebellion lightly. Soon after being named the Bangalore North candidate, she visited his bete noire T N Javarayi Gowda of the JD(S), who secured 1.5 lakh votes in Yeshwantpur in the 2023 Assembly elections. The BJP is regularly organising coordination meetings with leaders of JD(S), which received 2.56 lakh votes in the eight Assembly segments in last year’s elections.

Congress leaders are also banking on anti-incumbency to make a turnaround in Bangalore North, but the saffron brigade believes the removal of Sadananda Gowda and introduction of ‘Shobhakka’ has changed the electoral dynamics in its favour.