Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Is defeat of Omar Abdullah & Mehbooba Mufti partial validation of BJP’s narrative on dynastic parties?

Srinagar: The defeat of - Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti - both prominent figures of political dynasties of Jammu and Kashmir in recently concluded Parliament polls is seen as a partial validation of BJP’s narrative that people were unhappy with their politics of “deceit and deception.”

In the first post-Article 370 test, Abdullah, vice president of National Conference, was defeated by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as 'Engineer Rashid', who is jailed under the UAPA, by 2,04,142 votes, while People’s Democratic Party (PDP) President Mehbooba lost by a huge margin of 2,81,794 votes.

The loss of two former chief ministers has sent ripples as it is seen as a blow for both the NC and the PDP ahead of assembly polls which are scheduled to happen in the next few months.

For the last few years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and outgoing Union Home Minister Amit Shah have been targeting dynastic parties for “allowing terror to flourish and were only concerned about their families and not about interests of common people.”

This election was seen as a crucial test for the PDP’s revival, which has faced several setbacks since 2019. For Mehbooba, a second consecutive defeat - she had lost Anantnag in 2019 - brings significant challenges. There is the question of the PDP’s future in the politics of J&K, as well as the efforts needed to keep the party cadre together.

Similarly, the NC which had remained afloat of any defections in the last five years was expecting a clean sweep on all three Valley LS seats.

For decades, the Abdullah and Mufti families have been synonymous with Kashmir's politics. However, as the winds of change have started blowing the two dynastic political parties are feeling the heat.

The BJP won both Lok Sabha seats of Jammu region and took lead in 29 out of 36 assembly segments in the region. On the other hand, the NC won two LS seats of the Valley and took lead in 27 out of 47 assembly seats in Kashmir with the PDP lagging far behind on five.

Rashid took lead in 15 out of 18 assembly seats of Baramulla LS seat while People’s Conference (PC) led by Sajjad Lone could manage lead on just one assembly segment.  It remains to be seen what effect these parliamentary elections will have on their performance in the Assembly polls.

The defeat of Omar and Mehbooba is seen as a partial validation of the BJP's narrative: the people of Jammu and Kashmir were disillusioned with the politics of ‘deceit and deception’ that has plagued the region for decades.

Rameez Makhdoomi, a political analyst and a TV debater believes that Omar and Mehbooba face their own moments of introspection. “Their defeats are a stark reminder that even the most storied dynasties could not take peoples’ trust for granted. For two dynasty leaders, the path ahead requires a reimagining of their political strategies,” he told DH.

Makhdoomi said Omar and Mehbooba need to engage with the younger generation, address pressing issues like unemployment, education, and development, and most importantly, earn the trust of the people through actions rather than heritage.

“This electoral defeat is a wake-up call, an opportunity to reinvent and align more closely with the aspirations of their constituents,” he added.