Lok Sabha polls 2024: In I.N.D.I.A. bloc's safe southern fort, BJP attempts a breach

Despite anti-incumbency against the DMK government and sitting MPs, the I.N.D.I.A. grouping has an edge over AIADMK and BJP in Tamil Nadu.

Chennai: What has always been a bipolar contest between the two Dravidian majors DMK and AIADMK is turning into a triangular fight in Tamil Nadu with the BJP cobbling up a rainbow coalition as it makes a concerted effort to breach the southern fortress. 

Yet another player on the turf is the Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK), a Tamil nationalist outfit that has caught the imagination of young voters, especially in southern parts of the state.

Tamil Nadu, with 39 MPs, is a politically-crucial state that has played a key role in the formation of coalition governments in Delhi whenever the Congress or BJP failed to get a majority on their own.

The DMK was an integral part of the central governments led by United Front (from 1996 to 1998), National Democratic Alliance (from 1999 to 2004), and United Progressive Alliance (from 2004 to 2013), while the AIADMK was a key player in the NDA from 1998 from 1999.

DMK’s game plan

It is in this context, DMK president and Chief Minister M K Stalin, one of the prime movers behind the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, has made the 2024 electoral contest into a prestigious battle by fixing a target of winning all 40 seats at stake, including the lone Puducherry constituency. 

It is also a fact that Tamil Nadu is one of the very few states where the situation is rosy for the I.N.D.I.A. grouping due to a slew of factors like the alliance’s cohesiveness, proven arithmetic strength in the past elections, and welfare schemes of the three-year-old DMK dispensation.

By bettering the 2019 performance when the alliance trounced the AIADMK-BJP combine winning 38 of the 39 seats, Stalin is hoping to play a key role in the formation of an opposition-led alliance in the event of an upset loss for the NDA. 

A ground visit to half-a-dozen districts in southern Tamil Nadu showed the existence of anti-incumbency against the DMK government and incumbent MPs, but it may not be visible at the top or hurt the ruling alliance this time. 

That it is a national election, a split in the opposition votes, and an anticipated “en masse” transfer of minority votes, which is a significant 19 per cent, are some of the factors that could explain this, political analysts said. 

AIADMK sweating it out

Principal Opposition party, AIADMK, which ruled Tamil Nadu for three decades, has gone to the campaign trail with all guns blazing at its arch-rival DMK, to cash in on the anti-incumbency. The AIADMK also wants to deliver the message that it is no pushover though the optics may not look good with the party losing all its previous alliance partners except the DMDK and PT to the BJP, its former ally. 

Though the AIADMK has fielded middle-level functionaries as candidates, cadres are sweating it out in the field as they believe 2024, even if it doesn’t result in the much-needed victory, will at least be a “preparatory ground” for the party to get battle-ready for the 2026 Assembly polls in which Edappadi K Palaniswami will fight it out with Stalin. 

The stakes for the BJP

For the BJP, this Lok Sabha election is all about proving that the 2019 result was an “aberration” and that the people of Tamil Nadu are beginning to accept the saffron party. If not winning seats, the BJP hopes to post a double-digit vote share — it scored about 5.75 per cent votes in the 2022 municipal elections — and emerge as the runner up in over 10 Lok Sabha constituencies. 

Attempting a social engineering, the BJP has put together a coalition of parties that wield influence among various communities across the state. If its ally PMK helps woo the Vanniyars in the north, AIADMK rebels T T V Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam might help get a significant portion of Mukulathors to vote for the alliance in the south. 

Winning even a couple of seats will help the BJP gloat that it has made inroads into the Dravidian fortress that has only been ruled either by the DMK or AIADMK since 1967 after the Congress was ousted from power. 

The 2024 elections will set the tone for the 2026 polls, which is likely to be a crowded affair with popular actor Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) likely to be the new party in the town. 

Issues in the election and what the results would mean?

The ruling DMK has made federalism and equal fiscal rights for states from the Union government as the central piece of its campaign by raking up issues like NEET and CAA, while the BJP has drafted its campaign on two fronts — seeking votes in the name of Modi and his "decade-long work" and highlighting the "misgovernance" of the DMK government. 

A marginal player, though his party scored about 7 per cent in the 2021 Assembly polls, NTK chief S Seeman is making inroads in rural areas of the state with his fiery speeches on Tamil nationalism, explaining how it will help Tamil Nadu usher in a new political culture. 

Prof Ramu Manivannan, former head, department of politics and public administration, University of Madras, told DH the 2024 Lok Sabha election is significant for Tamil Nadu because the BJP, which is on the rise in the north, getting a foothold in the state is equally important as this is the last fort to be breached for the saffron party.

"In the same breath, it is also important for the Dravidian parties, especially the DMK, to prevent such an occurrence. If the BJP makes inroads in Tamil Nadu, it is a red signal for the DMK. It is the AIADMK which is the real bulwark against the BJP more than the DMK," Prof Manivannan added.

"The BJP can make inroads wherever there is caste and social polarisation, seemingly so in south Tamil Nadu. But everyone should remember that the AIADMK is still a force to reckon with. It may underperform in 2024 but has the capability and capacity to bounce back in 2026,” he said. 

The arithmetic and narrative are in favour of the DMK alliance, but in a state known for springing last-minute surprises, nothing can be said till the EVMs are opened.