Lok Sabha Elections 2024 | Poor voter turnout worries all in Bihar

Two phases of elections are over in Bihar. The first phase saw 48% turnout for four seats, while the second phase witnessed 58% of polling for another five constituencies. Together, the average of these two phases comes to 54%. This is considerably low compared to 65 to 75% in other states.

Five more phases of polls still remain to go for the remaining 31 seats out of 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar. However, the sweltering heat is causing worry to the Election Commission as well as political parties of all hues. The EC is worried about why there is such a poor turnout of voters. The political parties are worried whether the poor turnout of voters is an indication of a "vote against" them or a vote “actually favouring" them.

No one can reach a conclusion decisively precisely because the past indications (of voters’ turnout) paint a confusing picture in Bihar. Sample this: In 2004, UPA won 29 seats when the voters' turnout was around 58%. The NDA wrested 11 seats. However, in 2009, things changed diametrically opposite when the NDA won 32 seats while the UPA merely eight. The voters' turnout in 2009 was 44.5%, substantially low compared to 58% in 2004.

Interestingly, when the voters' turnout in 2014 was 56%, still the NDA won 31 seats while the UPA seven seats. The remaining two seats were won by Nitish, who contested alone and had to bite the dust in the State where he had been ruling for years. In 2019, the voting percentage was 1% more: 57% - and this time the NDA swept Bihar bagging 39 out of 40 seats.

“It's very difficult to find out whether the poor turnout of voters is favouring the ruling party or the Opposition camp. There are roughly around 20 lakh voters in each Lok Sabha constituency. If you speak to even 20 of them (say for sample size), you can get some indication which way the wind is blowing but you cannot say conclusively who is going to win or lose,” opined social scientist Ajay Kumar, who has closely watched Lok Sabha elections in Bihar for the last three decades.

“The EC is itself to be blamed for such a poor turnout of voters. In this hot season, it has stretched voting till June 1, that too in seven phases. Fatigue is afflicting the leaders as well as the electorate,” the social scientist added.