J&K Polls 2024: Multi-cornered contest may lead to fractured verdict in polls

Srinagar: The upcoming Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the first since the abrogation of Article 370, is set to be highly contentious. With the political landscape more fragmented than ever, the region seems poised for a fractured verdict.

The contest has expanded into a multi-cornered race, with numerous parties and independent candidates vying for influence in a highly volatile environment.

One of the new players making waves is Awami Ittehad Party’s (AIP) incarcerated chief and MP Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, who is in Tihar jail since 2019 on alleged terror charges.

Having made substantial inroads during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, AIP is now looking to translate that momentum into Assembly seats. Rashid's appeal, particularly among the youth, poses a significant challenge to the established dominance of the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Congress in Kashmir.

Abrar Rashid, son of Engineer Rashid, who successfully managed his father's Lok Sabha campaign, stated that the AIP plans to field around 30-35 candidates, primarily young intellectuals with no prior political experience. "They will offer a new alternative to the people," he said, revealing that the first nine candidates selected include doctors and PhD scholars.

The complexity of the electoral landscape is further deepened by the potential entry of former separatist leaders as independent candidates. This shift in the Valley’s political dynamics could see these figures gaining electoral legitimacy, further complicating the race.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is banking heavily on the Hindu-majority seats in the Jammu region. The party aims to capitalise on the growing polarisation and nationalist sentiment that has surged since the 2008 Amarnath land row agitation.

The BJP, which secured both Lok Sabha seats in Jammu, led in 29 out of 36 assembly segments in the region, with Congress leading in the remaining seven.

Meanwhile, in the Kashmir Valley, the NC won both Lok Sabha seats, leading in 27 out of 47 assembly segments, while the PDP trailed with leads in just five segments. Engineer Rashid’s AIP took the lead in 15 out of 18 assembly segments within the Baramulla constituency, while Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference (PC) managed to lead in only one.

Since the 1996 Assembly elections, no single party has been able to secure a majority in J&K, resulting in a series of coalition governments. This trend became more pronounced after 2002, making alliances a defining feature of governance in the region.

As the 2024 elections approach, the political landscape appears even more fragmented, making the formation of a stable government a daunting challenge. The results on October 4 could lead to protracted negotiations, fragile coalitions, or even another period of central rule.