Current Covid-19 surge no indication of fourth wave: OMAG

Even as Covid-19 cases are rising, experts believe that the the current surge of infections does not indicate a fourth wave.

According to Mumbai's Dr Ishwar Gilada, an infectious diseases expert and Secretary General of Organised Medicine Academic Guild (OMAG), vaccination needs to be ramped up and coverage needs to be widened to arrest the spike, besides bringing in Covid-appropriate behaviour.

"There is no doubt that the Covid-19 cases are rising ..not merely in Mumbai or Maharashtra but also in Kerala. Significantly, these are the two states that had driven third wave. The only noticeable change has been the possibility of BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron driving the surge, coupled with low speed of vaccination,” said Dr Gilada, an infectious diseases expert and Secretary General of Organised Medicine Academic Guild (OMAG).

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“As long as demand for oxygen and beds is not increasing and we are not logging high numbers of Covid deaths, there is no cause of concern,” he said.

India has seen 39% reduction in deaths over the past week—from 173 in the previous week to 106 in the last— and 50% rise in cases—25,036 this week from 16,672 a week ago.

"The Omicron variant of will continue to be a 'variant of support' rather than a 'variant of concern'," he said.

"India's cumulative case fatality rate (CFR) is 1.2% and Maharashtra's is 1.87%. However, the Mumbai civic body and state health department should clearly mention that figure as 'Cumulative CFR' (From the beginning of the pandemic including the fatal Delta wave a year ago). They should also mention that the current CFR is very, very low, which according to me is ~0.1%, the same as in flu," he added.

“We should focus on ramping up vaccination - both for below 18 and booster doses. The mandatory gap between 2nd dose and booster dose should be 6 months rather than current 9 months,” said Dr Gilada.

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According to Dr Gilada, with close to 20 crore vaccines lying with states and nearly 3 crore with Maharashtra alone, booster shots should be made free for those eligible and willing to take it.

"Once people have been used to getting free doses, expecting them to pay for the booster will not work."

With Biological E's Corbevax cleared as heterologous booster by the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI), to be used 6 months after the second dose, the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI) should bring in the guidelines immediately without further bureaucratic delay. We have been noticing that there is little cohesion among several official and advisory bodies, the pointed out

"Even though DCGI grants licence to different vaccines, NTAGI takes its own time, sometimes several months to implement the same through their guidelines," Dr Gilada said.

Maharashtra in particular is very poor in vaccination for those below 18, 26% with single dose and 12% with both the doses. This needs to be taken up on top priority. Covid-appropriate behaviour in crowded public places and especially indoors must be brought back, he said.