Crisis of character and relevance: What lies ahead for JD(S)?

Bengaluru: The Janata Dal (Secular), once a powerful regional force in Karnataka politics, finds itself at a critical juncture -- morally, electorally, and organisationally, as the first family of the party grapples with one of its gravest challenges yet.

The recent life sentence handed to former MP Prajwal Revanna in a rape case has not only disgraced the political scion but also cast a long shadow over the future of a party already in decline.

Prajwal was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment by a special court for sexually assaulting a 48-year-old domestic worker at the family’s farmhouse and Bengaluru residence in 2021.

The court held him guilty under multiple sections of the IPC and IT Act, imposing stiff punishments and a hefty fine of Rs 11.5 lakh, of which Rs 11.25 lakh is to be paid to the survivor.

The court’s ruling underlined the severity of the offence and the convict’s abuse of power as a sitting Member of Parliament.

For the JD(S), a party that has long projected itself as a custodian of regional pride and farmer interests, the damage is far deeper than electoral numbers or public perception.

This scandal strikes at the very credibility of a party that has for decades been tightly controlled by the Gowda family. Now that control is under scrutiny.

The timing of this blow could not be worse. The party is still reeling from a steep decline in the 2023 Assembly elections, where it slipped from 37 MLAs in 2018 to just 19, a near halving of its legislative strength.

That drubbing not only eroded its bargaining power but forced the JD(S), which had long claimed the 'secular' mantle, into an uneasy alliance with the BJP—a party it had fiercely opposed in public rhetoric for years by calling it 'communal'.

The ideological compromise left many of its core voters disillusioned, with some drifting towards Congress and others simply disengaging.

In this weakened state, Prajwal’s conviction adds more challenges.

The fact that the victim in the case was a worker in the Revanna household makes the incident not only criminal but a betrayal of trust and power.

The surfacing of explicit videos ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in which Prajwal made a losing bid from his traditional Hassan seat, further compounded the shame.

The implications are manifold. For one, the JD(S) brand, which is already battered by its image as a family-run party, is now deeply tainted.

The involvement of a key member of the founding family in such a grave offence may alienate even its loyal voter base in the Old Mysuru region.

Secondly, questions are being raised about whether the party leadership was aware of Prajwal’s conduct earlier and chose to shield him, as the offences date back to 2021 but became public only in 2024.

H D Deve Gowda, now 91, has remained silent in public since the verdict.

His stature as a respected elder statesman is now being tested by the conduct of his descendants.

Gowda's son, H D Revanna, who is the father of Prajwal and a prominent JD(S) leader himself, is also under the legal scanner in related cases.

This leaves the party without a clear moral voice or a viable next-generation leader, especially with the once-promising Prajwal now behind bars for life.

The JD(S) second-in-Command and Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy tried to project his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy as the third generation leader of the JD(S) but his drubbing in the three successive elections starting from Mandya Lok Sabha election in 2019 to 2024 Channapatna bypolls shattered the expectations of the Gowda clan and deepened the leadership crisis in the family-held party.

Senior journalist Ramakrishna Upadhya noted that the JD(S) has been on a steady decline over the past 26 years.

“The party’s prospects have diminished from election to election. In the 2023 Assembly polls, they were reduced to just 19 seats and a 19 per cent vote share—their lowest in over two decades.

Deve Gowda, sensing the party’s waning clout, struck a clever understanding with the BJP, which benefitted both sides. But the Prajwal Revanna episode is nothing short of a disaster,” he said.

According to Upadhya, the BJP was initially hesitant to allow the JD(S) to field Prajwal as a candidate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, but Deve Gowda insisted. “Now they’ve suffered a deadly blow. Prajwal’s political career is finished,” he remarked.

He also pointed to a longstanding internal rivalry within the Gowda family, particularly between H D Kumaraswamy and his brother H D Revanna, each seeking to promote their respective sons as political heirs. “Revanna pushed hard for his son Prajwal, while Kumaraswamy made three failed attempts to launch his son Nikhil,” Upadhya said.

In the aftermath of this crisis, speculation is rife about the party's future. Some believe the JD(S) may try to sever formal ties with its tainted members and rebuild under new leadership. Others, like Upadhya, believe the party may either align more formally with the BJP for the 2028 Assembly elections or eventually merge with the saffron party.