Palaniswami wins hands down; how long will truce with Panneerselvam last?

On the face of it, Wednesday’s developments in the ruling AIADMK may look optimistic. While the issue of the Chief Ministerial face looks done and dusted, the million-dollar question now is how long the truce between Edappadi K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam will last.

The events that preceded the truce are certainly not “good optics” for a ruling party as senior ministers literally burnt the midnight oil – series of meetings that began Tuesday morning ended only in the wee hours of Wednesday -- to resolve differences between the two leaders to ensure the announcement is made on October 7, the self-imposed deadline.

Though EPS and OPS exchanged pleasantries on Wednesday – the Chief Minister also called on his deputy at his residence late in the evening -- the fact that they never met each other to sort out their differences in the past week demonstrates their rift, political analysts feel.

And when the decision was announced on Wednesday morning, Chief Minister Palaniswami had won hands down by finding a place for six of his senior cabinet colleagues, including two trusted lieutenants, in the Steering Committee, while the nominees from the other side wield less or no influence within the party and the government.

A close look at the Steering Committee reveals the fact that Palaniswami has displayed his political astuteness by ensuring that most members are opposed to his former boss, V K Sasikala, who is expected to walk out of a Bengaluru prison by the end of 2020 or early 2021.

Palaniswami, while holding a majority in the Steering Committee, will continue to hold the post of joint coordinator next only to Panneerselvam in the party. The public relations team of EPS also went on overdrive by releasing several videos that project the Chief Minister as the future leader of the AIADMK.

Though Panneerselvam’s demand for a Steering Committee was met, the power equation within the committee, party, and the government is clearly tilted towards Palaniswami.

The analysts feel the truce will be put to test in the coming months as the AIADMK gets into the election mode. Panneerselvam might feel sidelined yet again due to Palaniswami’s upper hand in the present party structure, they said, adding any differences between the two leaders yet again may not augur well for the party.

“Chief Ministerial nominee is just one issue. As the election nears, issues like alliance formation, candidate selection, and formation of different committees will come up for discussion. That is where the real test lies. If both OPS and EPS put up a united face like they did today, it will be good for the party. But who knows?” a party veteran asked.

Prof. Ramu Manivannan told Deccan Herald that the “truce” arrived at on Wednesday is just the beginning of a “long duel” between EPS and OPS and it is just a matter of time the deputy chief minister raised a banner of revolt.

“In my opinion, the truce was brought about only to pre-empt Panneerselvam from doing anything that would have harmed the party. The elections are seven months away and the contradictions between the two leaders are known already. We should also wait and see what happens when Sasikala comes out of jail,” Prof. Manivannan, Head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, told DH.

Political analyst Prof. P Ramajayam also saw the truce as a “stop-gap” arrangement to put up a united face, while agreeing that the issue of the Chief Ministerial nominee has been settled.

“Problems between EPS and OPS would continue. The truce is temporary and a stop-gap arrangement to send out a message to the DMK that they too have a challenger (for M K Stalin) in EPS. But the differences between the two would come out during distribution of tickets during elections and campaigns. I feel the truce may not last long,” he told DH.