Polls on the horizon, I.N.D.I.A bloc realigns its fault lines

New Delhi: Key players in the Opposition I.N.D.I.A bloc have started to make tactical realignments in their political line as they prepare to face off against each other in some of the half a dozen states that go to the polls next year.

The Left Front, which is seeking a third consecutive mandate in Kerala in May 2026, has had to temper its bonhomie with the Congress, its main challenger in the state. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, too, has made a subtle shift in stance as it prepares to take on the BJP in West Bengal.

For instance, consider the 24-hour TMC sit-in at Jai Hind camp, a slum near Vasant Kunj, a tony upmarket enclave in South Delhi. The shanty town houses approximately 1,500 shanties and accommodates around 5,000 people. Most are Bangla-speaking residents.

The underlying theme of the protest, covered extensively by the Bangla media, was: “Bangla-speaking people are being wrongly targeted and harassed in BJP-ruled states.” The trigger: the recent drive conducted by law enforcement in states, especially Delhi and Maharashtra, against illegal immigrants.

What may appear to be a one-off dharna a thousand miles from Kolkata, however, holds unmistakable signs of the shifting footprints on the national political landscape.

Of the electoral contests slated for 2026, West Bengal, in particular, promises to be the mother of all political battles. The state has, on two occasions since 2014, defied the BJP’s determined bid to capture Fort William, especially when once-impregnable fortresses in Assam and Odisha have been subsumed by the saffron surge.

With less than a year to go before the polls, some in the party feel that the anti-immigration drive against Bangladeshis and Rohingyas in some states could provide the underpinnings of an election campaign that has the potential to trigger polarisation on religious lines in Assam and Bengal.

As a counter, the Trinamool has started to spin a narrative around Bengali cultural sub-nationalism by accusing the BJP-ruled states of targeting the Bengali-speaking population residing outside West Bengal. The target audience for this campaign, however, is purely domestic.

The BJP, too, has had to make tactical adjustments. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his Friday rally at Durgapur, began his speech with 'Jai Maa Kali' and 'Jai Maa Durga', to establish a cultural connect.

The Trinamool, often seen as striking jarring notes in the I.N.D.I.A alliance, has in the last couple of months also tempered its tone within the Opposition bloc. On Saturday, heir apparent and Mamata’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee participated in a pre-session Opposition meeting, which the TMC has often given a miss in the past.

The Congress, the largest party in the Opposition bloc, too, has reciprocated in kind. Mamata’s bete noire in state politics and former Union minister Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury remains on the sidelines after losing the 2024 LS elections from Berhampur, a seat that he had represented on five occasions since 1999. Adhir’s replacement as state Congress chief, Subhankar Sarkar, has not taken an aggressive line against the Mamata government.

The Congress’ shift in the Bengal position, where it was aligned with the CPM, has been dictated by political compulsions in another poll-bound state down south. In Kerala, which will go to the elections with Bengal, the Congress would be rooting to reclaim power from the CPM after an extended 10-year exile in the Opposition.

In the last month, leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi toured many states to overhaul the party organisation. He’s been to Assam, where he launched a frontal attack on CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. During his recent trip to Kerala, Rahul was unsparing of the Pinarayi Vijayan government, drawing a parallel between the Left and the RSS. 

But West Bengal is one poll-bound state he’s yet to visit.