As I.N.D.I.A parties tread cautiously to firm up the contours of the nationwide alliance against the ruling BJP, a broader framework of the seat-sharing formula in Bihar has started to emerge after informal deliberations for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The two main alliance partners in the state, the Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal, want to contest 34 seats between them, leaving the remaining 6 for the alliance partners.
BJP and JD(U) had contested the 2019 general elections as allies and the NDA together had bagged 39 out of 40 seats in the state. Congress bagged one seat in the state while RJD drew a blank.
The equations changed after Nitish Kumar defected to tie up with the RJD last year.
This time around, the RJD-JD(U) combine would prefer to field candidates in 17 seats each and leave 6 to the allies including 4 for the Congress and 2 for CPI (Marxist-Leninist).
“But we feel Congress may insist on 8 seats. However, the winnability of the candidates is paramount in this election and not just who contests in how many seats,” a JD(U) leader said on condition of anonymity.
In the last state legislative assembly elections held in Bihar in 2020, Congress fielded candidates in 70 seats and registered a poor strike rate of 27 per cent. Its lackadaisical performance dragged down the cumulative tally of the anti-BJP alliance, and though RJD emerged as the single largest party in the state assembly, it failed to form the government by a whisker.
Lessons learnt
Learning from past experiences, the big brothers in Bihar, RJD, and JDU, appear to be more accommodating towards the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) which won 11 out of 19 seats it contested.
“They have 50 to 70 thousand dedicated and aggressive votes in each Lok Sabha constituency,” says another alliance leader. CPI (ML) is keen to contest Ara and may be accommodated in one more seat.
Another Left party, the CPI which once had pockets of influence in north Bihar has also been demanding a seat.
The alliance is keeping its options open to accommodate the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) which has its support base among the boat-men or Nishaad communities. Its leader Mukesh Sahani has been weighing the option for now and may tilt either way.
The I.N.D.I.A parties are willing to accommodate VIP from the Muzaffarpur seat and may also consider leaving one seat in Madhepura for former MP and local strongman Pappu Yadav from Congress’ quota. Yadav’s wife Ranjeet Ranjan is a Rajya Sabha MP from Congress.
At the national level, the opposition bloc is aiming to have a one-on-one election against the NDA in 400 to 450 seats in the parliamentary elections.