Ban gatherings of more than 10 for next two months: Lancet Covid-19 India Task Force

India may see 1,750 coronavirus deaths per day, rising to approximately 2,320 by the first week of June, a report of the Lancet Covid-19 Commission's India Task Force has said.

The report, titled 'Managing India’s second Covid-19 wave: Urgent steps' is a joint effort of experts from across the country, including the Union health ministry and ICMR. The report highlights the key points of the second wave of the pandemic and recommends steps needed immediately to help slow down the spread of infection. A temporary ban on gatherings of groups larger than 10 for the next two months has been recommended to control the spread of infection.

"As of April 1, 2021, 84.61% of all new infections were concentrated in Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh...Preliminary analysis indicates that while the pandemic has spread, the geographic contours of the second wave closely mirror those of the first wave, though with a deeper penetration into tier 2, tier 3 cities," the report said.

The report urges an expansion of genome sequencing of the coronavirus to understand if mutants or variants are responsible for the current surge, and if so, the nature and type of such variants.

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Epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu who is part of the 21-member task force of the Lancet Covid-19 Commission told DH, "The most important aspect of the report is to place a temporary complete ban on gathering of groups of more than 10 for the next two months. If this is done immediately, we can control the spread of infection.

"First, the State needs to ensure adequate allocations are made for testing and treatment to sustain the Covid-19 response. Secondly, disruptions to regular health services such as routine immunisation and delivery care should be minimised while addressing the second and multiple waves," he said.

"Thirdly, the report has recommended including all adults with severe co-morbidities into the priority group. The state can prepare micro plans based on this for rolling out vaccination on priority for reducing mortality as we move ahead. Fourthly, the state needs to promote vaccine acceptance, especially among the vulnerable and minorities," he added.

Other actions that the state can include are not to resort to blanket lockdowns and provide resources to NIMHANS and NCBS-inStem to increase genomic sequencing of at least 5% of outbreaks, Dr Babu said. These two Bengaluru-based labs are a part of the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics.