Chinese incursions into India strategically planned: Study

Using geospatial analysis, researchers have identified 13 hotspots where incursions occur most frequently

Chinese incursions across the western and central zones of India’s disputed boundary are not independent, random incidents that happen by mistake, but are part of a strategically planned, coordinated effort to gain permanent control of disputed border areas, a new study has claimed.

Scientists from Northwestern University, USA, together with colleagues from Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands and the Netherlands Defence Academy, first assembled a new data set, compiling information about Chinese incursions into India from 2006 to 2020, and used game theory and statistical methods to analyse the data.

“Building on insights from game theory, we conclude that Chinese incursions in the western sector of the LAC (Aksai Chin) are strategically planned and aim for a permanent control, or at least a clearer status quo of the contested areas. This finding is in agreement with other studies into the expansionist strategy of the current Chinese government,” the researchers reported in the journal PLOS One on Thursday.

Using geospatial analysis, they have identified 13 hotspots where incursions occur most frequently.

They are Depsang, Galwan, Hotspring, Pangong, Demchok, Chumar, Barahoti, Sikkim, Tawang, Lhunze, Bishing, Anini and Kibithu. The first six are in the western sector and the last six are on the east while Barahoti is in the middle sector.

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Addressing tension in these hotspots, they said, could help defuse the conflict along the Line of Actual Control.

“By studying the number of incursions that occurred in the west and middle sectors over time, it became obvious, statistically, that these incursions are not random,” said Northwestern’s V S Subrahmanian, the study’s senior author and a renowned expert in artificial intelligence and security matters.

“The probability of randomness is very low, which suggests that it’s a coordinated effort. When we looked at the eastern sector, however, there is much weaker evidence for coordination.”

Subrahmanian is the Walter P Murphy Professor of Computer Science at Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering and Buffett Faculty Fellow at Northwestern’s Buffett Institute for Global Affairs.

The intrusions tend to occur in two distinct regions – Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. The authors compiled a database of border intrusions from media reports, plotted them on a map and carried out statistical analysis.

In the 15-year data set, the researchers noted an average of 7.8 incursions per year. The Indian government’s estimates, however, are much higher at 300 per year with a high of 663 in 2019 and a low of 140 in 2007.

“We are not sure why this gap exists. It is possible that what defines an ‘incursion’ to the Indian government is different from what media reports consider to be an ‘incursion’. However, the trend lines for both numbers are very similar and highly correlated,” he told DH. “Both curves show that incursions are increasing — but not steadily. They rise and fall, while still trending upward.”

Although hotspots occur throughout Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, the researchers’ game-theory analysis indicates that only the incursions in Aksai Chin are part of a coordinated effort.

The researchers predict that China is trying to establish permanent control over Aksai Chin by allocating more troops for a longer period of time than India.

“Within the Western Sector (Aksai Chin), we found strong evidence for a carefully coordinated strategy. Of the six Aksai Chin conflict zones, we find greater Chinese focus in the Depsang plateau, Pangong Lake, and Chumur and to some extent Demchok. But there is very little focus on Galwan Valley and Hotspring compared to the other four, suggesting a carefully thought through deployment by the Chinese,” he added.