<p>A fortnight after Dasara, Covid-19’s R value, which signifies the epidemic’s ability to spread, has once again risen tantalisingly close to the threshold value of one in several states and metro cities including Karnataka and Bengaluru, opening up the possibility of a spurt in cases again.</p>.<p>Other places where R logs a value higher than one are West Bengal and Kolkata that witnessed Durga Puja celebrations, Kerala, where it went past the threshold value after a gap of four weeks and Himachal Pradesh that now has India’s highest R value (1.22).</p>.<p>Reproduction number signals an epidemic’s ability to spread. For instance, an R value of 1.5 would mean that 10 Covid-19 positive persons can spread the infections to 15 others. For the epidemic to subside, the value of R should stay below one.</p>.<p><strong>DH Toon | </strong><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/dh-toon-this-festive-season-beware-of-new-variants-while-shopping-1045588.html" target="_blank"><strong>This festive season, beware of new variants while shopping</strong></a></p>.<p>“India’s situation is somewhat worse as R is quite close to one. Kerala has again gone above one in recent times whereas West Bengal continues to be above one. So also is Himachal Pradesh. Among big cities, Kolkata, Delhi and Bengaluru have R more than one,” Sitabhra Sinha, a scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, who has been successfully tracking the epidemic with his model since the beginning, told <em><span class="italic">DH</span></em>.</p>.<p>Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are the two other states where R stands above one whereas in Assam and Tamil Nadu it was close to one.</p>.<p>The fresh concerns on the Covid-19 front arrive in the middle of the festive season. While Dasara and Diwali have ended, Chhath – widely celebrated in densely populated eastern India – is just round the corner. Sinha’s model has data up to October 31, capturing the trend post-Dasara.</p>.<p>Till about six weeks ago, India’s R value stood comfortably lower than the threshold indicating a shrinking epidemic. The number began to rise post Dasara-Durga puja where social distancing norms were thrown to the winds and mask compliance was poor.</p>.<p>India’s vaccination coverage crossed 108 crore with 74 crore getting the first dose and 34 crore two doses.</p>.<p><strong>Check out latest DH videos here</strong></p>
<p>A fortnight after Dasara, Covid-19’s R value, which signifies the epidemic’s ability to spread, has once again risen tantalisingly close to the threshold value of one in several states and metro cities including Karnataka and Bengaluru, opening up the possibility of a spurt in cases again.</p>.<p>Other places where R logs a value higher than one are West Bengal and Kolkata that witnessed Durga Puja celebrations, Kerala, where it went past the threshold value after a gap of four weeks and Himachal Pradesh that now has India’s highest R value (1.22).</p>.<p>Reproduction number signals an epidemic’s ability to spread. For instance, an R value of 1.5 would mean that 10 Covid-19 positive persons can spread the infections to 15 others. For the epidemic to subside, the value of R should stay below one.</p>.<p><strong>DH Toon | </strong><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/dh-toon-this-festive-season-beware-of-new-variants-while-shopping-1045588.html" target="_blank"><strong>This festive season, beware of new variants while shopping</strong></a></p>.<p>“India’s situation is somewhat worse as R is quite close to one. Kerala has again gone above one in recent times whereas West Bengal continues to be above one. So also is Himachal Pradesh. Among big cities, Kolkata, Delhi and Bengaluru have R more than one,” Sitabhra Sinha, a scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, who has been successfully tracking the epidemic with his model since the beginning, told <em><span class="italic">DH</span></em>.</p>.<p>Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are the two other states where R stands above one whereas in Assam and Tamil Nadu it was close to one.</p>.<p>The fresh concerns on the Covid-19 front arrive in the middle of the festive season. While Dasara and Diwali have ended, Chhath – widely celebrated in densely populated eastern India – is just round the corner. Sinha’s model has data up to October 31, capturing the trend post-Dasara.</p>.<p>Till about six weeks ago, India’s R value stood comfortably lower than the threshold indicating a shrinking epidemic. The number began to rise post Dasara-Durga puja where social distancing norms were thrown to the winds and mask compliance was poor.</p>.<p>India’s vaccination coverage crossed 108 crore with 74 crore getting the first dose and 34 crore two doses.</p>.<p><strong>Check out latest DH videos here</strong></p>