<p>India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said most of the country would receive 101 per cent of its average monsoon rainfall between June and September and only parts of north east India are expected to experience a “below normal” monsoon.</p>.<p>Among the four homogeneous regions, rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal over northwest India (92-108%), southern peninsula (93-107%) and central India (more than 106%). Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over northeast India, which is likely to receive less than 95 per cent rainfall.</p>.<p>The MET office upgraded its April forecast in which it had predicted 98 per cent of average rainfall, raising hopes of better farm productivity that would be essential to come out of the dark zones of Covid-impacted economy.</p>.<p>Releasing the second long range monsoon forecast, Mrityunjay Mahapatra, director general of IMD, said quantitatively, the monsoon’s seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the entire country would likely to be 101 per cent of the long period average of 88 cm, the average seasonal rainfall between 1961-2010. The forecast, based on a statistical model, comes with a model error of 4 per cent on either side.</p>.<p>In the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agricultural regions, the rainfall is likely to be above normal (in excess of 106%).</p>.<p>The core zone is a vast area spanning over central and western India – which is associated with 88 per cent of monsoon variability and holds key to the monsoon’s “break phases”. Also the rainfall in June is likely to be “normal”.</p>.<p>On the dreaded El Nino – an unusual warming of the Pacific that plays havoc with weather around the world - Mahapatra assured it was unlikely to be seen this year.</p>.<p>Also a negative influence is unlikely to come from Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – a temperature sea-saw between the eastern and western parts of Indian Ocean.</p>.<p>The IMD’s probabilistic forecast shows 40 per cent probability of normal monsoon, 22 per cent probability of above normal rainfall and 12 per cent probability of excess rainfall. Taken together, there is a 76 per cent chance of the 2021 south-west monsoon ending up as either a normal or above normal one.</p>
<p>India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said most of the country would receive 101 per cent of its average monsoon rainfall between June and September and only parts of north east India are expected to experience a “below normal” monsoon.</p>.<p>Among the four homogeneous regions, rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal over northwest India (92-108%), southern peninsula (93-107%) and central India (more than 106%). Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over northeast India, which is likely to receive less than 95 per cent rainfall.</p>.<p>The MET office upgraded its April forecast in which it had predicted 98 per cent of average rainfall, raising hopes of better farm productivity that would be essential to come out of the dark zones of Covid-impacted economy.</p>.<p>Releasing the second long range monsoon forecast, Mrityunjay Mahapatra, director general of IMD, said quantitatively, the monsoon’s seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the entire country would likely to be 101 per cent of the long period average of 88 cm, the average seasonal rainfall between 1961-2010. The forecast, based on a statistical model, comes with a model error of 4 per cent on either side.</p>.<p>In the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agricultural regions, the rainfall is likely to be above normal (in excess of 106%).</p>.<p>The core zone is a vast area spanning over central and western India – which is associated with 88 per cent of monsoon variability and holds key to the monsoon’s “break phases”. Also the rainfall in June is likely to be “normal”.</p>.<p>On the dreaded El Nino – an unusual warming of the Pacific that plays havoc with weather around the world - Mahapatra assured it was unlikely to be seen this year.</p>.<p>Also a negative influence is unlikely to come from Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – a temperature sea-saw between the eastern and western parts of Indian Ocean.</p>.<p>The IMD’s probabilistic forecast shows 40 per cent probability of normal monsoon, 22 per cent probability of above normal rainfall and 12 per cent probability of excess rainfall. Taken together, there is a 76 per cent chance of the 2021 south-west monsoon ending up as either a normal or above normal one.</p>
