<p>With Covid-19 cases and deaths continue to shatter Jammu and Kashmir, health experts believe the peak of infections was yet to arrive and it may take another few weeks.</p>.<p>Dr Rouf Rather, a Community Medicine specialist, working in Kashmir’s Divisional level Covid-19 control room, believes Kashmir has two to four weeks more to go till it reaches its peak.</p>.<p>“Our peak is expected at the cusp of May and June. During the first part of June, daily cases would be constant with no major fluctuations. And in July, Kashmir will see a significant respite in the number of cases and a downward curve,” he predicts.</p>.<p><strong>Read: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/most-of-india-should-remain-locked-down-for-6-8-weeks-says-icmr-chief-985046.html">Most of India should remain locked down for 6-8 weeks, says ICMR chief</a></strong></p>.<p>However, Dr Rather has a word of caution. “The calculations depend on a number of factors that contribute in increasing or decreasing cases and delaying or hastening the peak,” he said.</p>.<p>“The number of cases would directly depend on the number of tests carried out. No model can calculate the exact number of cases, it is just an estimate based on certain variables – tests, public health measures and community behavior,” the medical expert added.</p>.<p>Prof Parvaiz Koul, a renowned pulmonologist and a physician said the past experience showed that Kashmir’s peak lagged a few weeks from the rest of the country. “However, this time around it is a different scenario, given the sudden spike in infections. The new variants are constantly changing the dynamics of the pandemic,” he said. </p>.<p>Dr Koul said lockdown and lockdown-specific behavior are both factors affecting the case load. “I estimate we have around three more weeks to reach where other states of India are right now,” he said.</p>.<p>Notwithstanding lockdown for almost two weeks, J&K continues to see a constant rise in the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths. The Union Territory (UT) has been witnessing a spurt in Covid-19 cases since April 20 when daily cases breached the 2,000 mark for the first time.</p>.<p>And since then the situation has only worsened with the Union Territory (UT) recording 564 deaths and 48,815 positive cases in the first 11 days of May. The barrage of patients requiring admission is a looming crisis for the region’s healthcare system. </p>
<p>With Covid-19 cases and deaths continue to shatter Jammu and Kashmir, health experts believe the peak of infections was yet to arrive and it may take another few weeks.</p>.<p>Dr Rouf Rather, a Community Medicine specialist, working in Kashmir’s Divisional level Covid-19 control room, believes Kashmir has two to four weeks more to go till it reaches its peak.</p>.<p>“Our peak is expected at the cusp of May and June. During the first part of June, daily cases would be constant with no major fluctuations. And in July, Kashmir will see a significant respite in the number of cases and a downward curve,” he predicts.</p>.<p><strong>Read: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/most-of-india-should-remain-locked-down-for-6-8-weeks-says-icmr-chief-985046.html">Most of India should remain locked down for 6-8 weeks, says ICMR chief</a></strong></p>.<p>However, Dr Rather has a word of caution. “The calculations depend on a number of factors that contribute in increasing or decreasing cases and delaying or hastening the peak,” he said.</p>.<p>“The number of cases would directly depend on the number of tests carried out. No model can calculate the exact number of cases, it is just an estimate based on certain variables – tests, public health measures and community behavior,” the medical expert added.</p>.<p>Prof Parvaiz Koul, a renowned pulmonologist and a physician said the past experience showed that Kashmir’s peak lagged a few weeks from the rest of the country. “However, this time around it is a different scenario, given the sudden spike in infections. The new variants are constantly changing the dynamics of the pandemic,” he said. </p>.<p>Dr Koul said lockdown and lockdown-specific behavior are both factors affecting the case load. “I estimate we have around three more weeks to reach where other states of India are right now,” he said.</p>.<p>Notwithstanding lockdown for almost two weeks, J&K continues to see a constant rise in the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths. The Union Territory (UT) has been witnessing a spurt in Covid-19 cases since April 20 when daily cases breached the 2,000 mark for the first time.</p>.<p>And since then the situation has only worsened with the Union Territory (UT) recording 564 deaths and 48,815 positive cases in the first 11 days of May. The barrage of patients requiring admission is a looming crisis for the region’s healthcare system. </p>
