The Southwest monsoon, which was forecast to hit Kerala coast by June 5, has missed the date. According to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) officials, the arrival of monsoon is witnessing some delay as southwesterly wind movement has not been favourable so far.
However, the officials said the first monsoon rain is likely to hit the southern coast in another 24 to 36 hours. It will advance towards Karnataka coast and is expected to arrive in Bangalore over the next three days.
“It is likely to hit Kerala after 24 hours and arrive in Karnataka by June 8-9, if all conditions are favourable. The south-west monsoon was earlier forecast to hit Kerala on June 5, while its actual date is June 1. It was already delayed and has now seen further delay because of an existing system hovering over the sea,” said a duty officer in New Delhi.
In addition, IMD Bangalore officials point out that if the south-westerly wind movement is favourable in the State, coastal and interior Karnataka will receive rainfall once the monsoon hits the Kerala coast.
The official explained that the onset of monsoon depends on many parameters like wind speed and direction, presence of atmospheric moisture and prevailing systems.
At present, conditions continue to be favourable for the onset of south-west monsoon over Kerala and its further advancement into parts of south Arabian Sea, parts of Tamil Nadu and parts of Bay of Bengal within the next 36 hours.
Meanwhile, mild showers continued in some parts of Kerala. A weather bulletin issued by the Met Department on Thursday evening said, “Conditions are favourable for the onset of south-west monsoon in Kerala.”
The Met Centre in Thiruvananthapuram predicted heavy rains in isolated places in the state till Sunday morning.
On Thursday, Cheruthazham in Thrissur district was the only station that recorded heavy rainfall, at 10 cm. Parts of Ernakulam, Idukki, Malappuram and Wayanad districts received moderate rainfall. The centre extended its warning to fishermen following predictions of strong on-shore winds.
Over the years, the onset of monsoon has varied from the projected forecast day. In 2009, it arrived on May 23 against the forecast day of May 26. In 2010, there was a difference of just a day: The forecast was on May 30 and it arrived on May 31.
