Congress trying to tide over pro-CPI(M) wave in Kerala; BJP could play spoilsport

At least a dozen seats are now witnessing a triangular fight with the BJP emerging as a key player with candidates like 'Metro Man' E Sreedharan

As the campaign for the April 6 Kerala Assembly elections came to an end by Sunday evening, a pro-CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front trend that prevailed in the state during the initial days of the campaign seems to have suffered a setback owing to fresh corruption charges as well as simmering internal resentments in the CPI(M), even as the left camps are hopeful for creating history with a consecutive second term.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance managed to have an upper hand in the election campaign by roping in national leaders. While NDA had a host of national leaders ranging from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Congress mainly cashed in on the popularity and legacy being enjoyed by Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi.

Of the 140 seat Kerala Assembly, at least a dozen are now witnessing a triangular fight with the BJP emerging as a key player with candidates like 'Metro Man' E Sreedharan. Even as BJP's winnability chances at its lone and maiden sitting seat Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram is even hanging in balance after the Congress fielded a much popular leader, the Congress camps are quite concerned that the BJP may eat into its vote banks, especially the Hindu community that constitute 55 per cent of Kerala population (as per 2011 census) as well as the anti-incumbency votes against the LDF government.

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This electioneering witnessed religious cards being used openly, especially over the Sabarimala women entry issue, with even the Prime Minister using Sabarimala Ayyappa chants in his election speeches. The CPI(M), which was already in the defensive over the Sabarimala issue, invited more embarrassment with Devaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran expressing regret over the tensions caused at Sabarimala, while CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury finding no reason to regret.

The CPI(M) seems to be making a counter move to woo the minority communities, especially the Muslim community that constitutes 27 per cent of Kerala's population. The strongly-worded statements of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan against BJP, terming Home Minister Amit Shah as 'epitome of communalism' and alleging of Congress-BJP nexus could be seen as efforts in this regard.

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Another crucial factor that Kerala witnessed is BJP's bid to make inroads into the Christian vote banks which already suffered a crack following the spit in the UDF's long term ally Kerala Congress (M) that enjoys considerable support from the Christian vote banks. With the faction led by Jose K Mani of Kerala Congress joining the LDF, the left camps also hope to get a slice of the Christian vote banks of central Kerala. BJP's national leaders have been in constant touch with Christian leaders assuring to address various long-term concerns like inadequate scholarship.

Among a series of allegations that came up against the LDF government recently, the one over the moves to allow a US firm to develop deep-sea trawlers may adversely affect the LDF's poll prospects in the 50 odd constituencies in the coastal areas. Representatives of the fishermen community as well as heads of various churches openly slammed the government's move.

Free ration supply during Covid-19 lockdown and enhanced social welfare pensions have been USPs of the LDF government. This indeed had gone down very well for the LDF across the state and may benefit electorally as well.

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During the initial days of the campaigning, the CPI(M) used take swipes at the Congress for groupism. But towards the end of the campaign, internal feuds are allegedly simmering in the CPI(M) over denying seats to senior leaders like Industry Minister E P Jayarajan and Finance Minister Thomas Isaac by enforcing a maximum two-consecutive term norm. Critical remarks of party leaders against terming Vijayan as 'Captain' by supporters could be seen as outcome of the simmering resentment.

Entry of a corporate-backed forum, Twenty20, in the Assembly election fray is also a serious aspect of this election. The forum formed by Kitex Garments won four panchayats in Ernakulam district in the recent elections by highlighting the welfare measures initiated at the Kizhakambalam panchayat in which it was in power since 2015. The mainstream political parties have been triggering a campaign against the entry of a corporate managed forum to electoral politics in a democratic setup.