Opposition's opposition to unity an advantage for BJP in Uttar Pradesh Assembly election

The Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government, which is facing anti-incumbency in Uttar Pradesh after the Covid-19 second wave, can breathe a sigh of relief if the Opposition votes get divided in the state Assembly election which is barely nine months away.

BSP chief Mayawati on Sunday hit out at Congress, saying that the 'C' in its name stands for "cunning", while Congress is claiming that it is quite capable of fighting the election on its own without the support of either SP or BSP.

"The Congress, which is running on oxygen in Uttar Pradesh, says that the 'B' in BSP stands for BJP. This is highly objectionable as the 'B' in BSP stands for Bahujan, which comprises SCs, STs, OBCs and religious minorities. Since their numbers are high, they are called Bahujan," Mayawati, who has announced her intent to go solo in UP polls, tweeted on Sunday.

Read more: 'C' in Congress stands for cunning, says Mayawati

Mayawati, whose party in the past had joined hands with all the three Opposition parties, also said that free and fair elections cannot be held in the state till one of Congress, BJP or Samajwadi Party remains in power.

Samajwadi Party, which forged an alliance with the BSP for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and with Congress for the 2017 UP Assembly polls, announced that this time, instead of the big parties, they will form alliances with smaller parties that have particular vote banks. Mayawati dubbed this announcement as a reflection of "SP's helplessness after being shunned by major parties".

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And herein lies the silver lining for the BJP. In the last seven years, the saffron party has expanded hugely in UP, and enjoys the backing of a wide network of RSS Karyakartas in a state where the Hindutva politics has resonated well.

A closer look at the performance of all the four parties in the last 15 years shows that while BJP has increased its vote share in the last three elections (2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 2017 Assembly polls), the other parties have lagged behind. A dominant BJP won the 2017 Assembly polls by bagging 40 per cent votes and further increased it to 50 per cent in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. BSP, which has been on a decline, had got its best at 30 per cent in 2007.

Read: UP Assembly polls: BJP will form govt, there should be no doubt about it, claims Yogi Adityanath

In a four-cornered contest among the SP, BSP, BJP and Congress, a vote share of 30%-35% will help any party to form the government.

In 2017, BJP won a whopping 312 Assembly seats, nearly seven times more seats than the 47 it won in 2012 state polls. BJP got almost 40 per cent votes then, getting a swing of nearly 25 per cent. BSP and SP got nearly 22 per cent each, with the former slightly ahead, while Congress plummeted to 6.25 per cent, falling from nearly 12 per cent it got in 2012 state polls.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls saw BJP getting nearly 50 per cent votes in UP, BSP less than 20 per cent and SP around 18 per cent votes. When BSP won the 2007 state elections, it got almost 30.5 per cent votes and SP 25.5 per cent and BJP still managed to get 17 per cent votes.

Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP got nearly 42.5 per cent votes, SP 22 per cent, BSP 20 per cent and Congress nearly 7.5 per cent.

In the 2012 state elections, SP got the largest share with 29.15 per cent, followed by the BSP with 25.91 per cent. The BJP got just 15 per cent, and the Congress around 11.5 per cent.

Also, despite getting its core Jatav votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BSP failed to win even a single seat as upper castes did not vote for the party and BJP, on the other hand, managed to breach the large Dalit vote base of Mayawati.

Hence, the BSP chief has been aggressively countering the bid of other parties to rope in Dalits--be it by accusing BJP of being "deceitful" after President Ram Nath Kovind inaugurated a statue of Dalit icon B R Ambedkar or Congress' plan to reach out to Dalits, which had begun in 2010 with Rahul Gandhi's 'dine with Dalit' events.

After having defeated BJP in some assembly and Lok Sabha bypolls, the highlight of which was Kairana where an RLD candidate backed by SP, BSP and Congress won in 2018 despite the place being a BJP stronghold, the divide in the Opposition camp is back.

And the division will only help BJP to strengthen its grip in Uttar Pradesh after the 2022 Assembly election.