Will it help Congress if Priyanka Gandhi moves to Uttar Pradesh?

After Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was asked to vacate her bungalow in the national capital, Congress has gone the whole hog to condemn her "harassment" and the buzz is that she would now relocate to Lucknow ahead of 2022 assembly polls.

Congress, which has been trying to pitchfork her as the main Opposition face in Uttar Pradesh ahead of next state polls, sees an opportunity in this action but the political dynamics of the state politics could end up benefiting the BJP.

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Congress was quick to react with Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot saying the that everything was “pre-planned with the sole purpose of harassing her” as first the govt withdrew SPG cover of Priyanka Gandhi and gave her Z+ security and now they say, this security cover doesn’t have provision for allotment of Govt accommodation.

In 2017 state polls when Congress was initially planning to contest one, poll strategist Prashant Kishore wanted Congress to declare Priyanka as CM candidate but the party did not oblige.

Congress instead named former Delhi Sheila Dikshit as CM's face before finally tying with Samajwadi Party, an experiment that bombed. Before the 2022 polls, Priyanka has gradually emerged as Congress face for UP at least and many believe she could even be a CM face.

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Congress, which had a very low base vote, has got a lot of traction after Priyanka Gandhi took the charge of the state and put up a sustained campaign against the Yogi Adityanath government of the state on issues of law order, Corona deaths and the migrant mess and sort of taking centre stage of Opposition politics at the cost of the two main opposition parties in the state Samajwadi Party and the BSP.

But the challenge is bigger. Congress vote percentage in UP 2019 Lok Sabha was a mere 6.36 percent while BJP was nearly 50 percent. BSP got more than 19 percent and SP 18 percent. Congress’ vote-share was 6.2 percent in 2017 assembly polls when it fought in alliance with Samajwadi Party, which had got 22 percent votes. BSP, which fought alone, had got a little more than 22 percent votes.

While the abysmally lower vote base makes it look like an insurmountable challenge for the Congress to pose any challenge to the BJP on its own, the party leaders cite the aggression in approach, which has nevertheless been visible in last one year since Priyanka took over the party affairs-- both on social media as well on the ground in the state, as a sign of revival of the party.

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However, as Congress tries to get a strong foothold in UP, it could warm BJP’s hearts owing to the past experience of 2019 Lok Sabha polls, where a division in minority votes in at least 10 Lok Sabha seats, damaged the prospects of SP and BSP, whose core voters did not vote together for each other as well.

Sensing it, both SP and BSP have begun training guns on Congress, dismissing her politics as "drama" and Priyanka wondering why some Opposition leaders have become "undeclared spokespersons of BJP".

The division is set to deepen in the coming days.

The only successful alliance formulae in UP had been the Kairana model, where a Muslim candidate Tabassum Hasan fielded by Ajit Singh’s RLD and backed by BSP, SP and Congress, defeated the BJP candidate Mriganka Singh, daughter Hindutva hardliner late Hukum Singh in 2018 Lok Sabha by-poll.

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Unlike the direct fight of Kairana, the political scenario unfolding now suggests that the state is headed for a four-cornered contest in 2022 and this will clearly give the BJP an advantage.

Congress, being out of power in UP now for nearly 31 years, not only grapples with a lower vote base challenge but also a lack of strong local leaders at the grassroots, something which will matter more when people go to vote for MLAs. Besides, many old guards in the state are peeved at being sidelined. Actually too many fronts for the Congress.