Driven mostly by new variants from the UK, South Africa and Brazil, noted virologist Dr T Jacob John said the second wave of Covid-19, which has ravaged India and its health systems, is nearing its peak and should end in another eight weeks, by the end of June.
In an interview with The New Indian Express, John said, "If new variants with high transmission efficiency emerge, and if they are able to evade immunity, we could have a small third wave. However, at this time, predictions are more like wishful thinking. We must prepare for a third wave -- even if it is unlikely."
He added that these variants crept up when no one was checking and the government, Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) and INSACOG, the three responsible agencies failed India.
Commenting on the accuracy of the government's projected Covid-19 fatality rate of 1.2 per cent, Dr John said it would make no difference if it was higher as it will not change the way Covid management is approached.
"The overall death rate is low in India for three reasons. One gross under-reporting, second, demographic advantage, with 30 per cent of population below 15 years and only 30 per cent above 45 years and only 5 per cent are over 65. Third, all those vulnerable to die from communicable diseases have probably died already because India has no communicable diseases control programme," he is quoted as saying.
The virologist said that the scale and speed of the second wave surprised many because everyone thought India mainly had the founder variant of the virus from Wuhan.
He also said that the health system in India has always been overstretched, even during the first wave.
“If the government can do justice with vaccination, even the unlikely probability of a third wave can be mitigated. In other words, with vaccines available since January 3, 2021, the third wave can be and must be prevented with vaccination," Dr John had told DH in an interview.
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